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Occasionem Carpe
"Seize the Moment"
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All bets are off…or is it just that NEW bets are being made?
…with the silver lining of lower rates, ARE new bets actually being made?
…or are we just seeing another pause, due to uncertainty?
Like Michael Corleone said, “Just when we thought we were out, they pulls us back in.” It’s like Groundhog day; every time we start to see the light and the prospects of substantial market activity, we encounter a speed bump…or land mine. And this time, it’s in the form of global tariffs. The biggest hurdle for the last three years has been elevated mortgage rates brought on by inflation. The good news was that the Fed’s goal was to bring them down in a measured manner, which they were achieving, albeit slower than hoped for. Now with “Liberation Day”, rate declines have accelerated, but for all the wrong reasons. They are now declining because the global economy is in shock and investors are seeking safer places to put their money, like 10 year U.S. Treasury Bills. When that happens and the price of these treasury bills goes up, rates come down.
30 Year Jumbo
| | The Silver Lining has been lower rates....FOR NOW. | | This dynamic presents an interesting moment. Interest rates, the one metric that had been holding back...for both buyers and sellers, is loosening up; this presents a more favorable buying opportunity at the moment. It must be noted, there is an opposing dynamic which will mature into our equation in the coming months which could erase this positive step and instead send rates in the opposite direction once again. The reason this might happen would be IF inflation intensifies again. The extreme nature of these tariffs has many economist predicting substantial inflation and, everyone knows, the Fed does not drop rates in the face of inflation. If that inflation becomes equally extreme, it could prompt the Fed to actually raise rates. Then what?...we could be back into the same cycle and it could happen in the midst of a recession this time. | | |
These factors, as always, will affect the buying pool differently. The wealthy will…well…do what the wealthy does, and take advantage of every possible buying opportunity. That said, this financial event has even caught them off guard, leaving most (of these all-cash buyers) with less liquidity than before. The “proletariat”, for lack of a better term, may actually find their buying opportunity now, in this window of low rates. These people are far less affected by stock market plunges and may see things loosen up for them until…well…rates go up again (if they do). It’s hard to predict, but with rates possibly around the best we will see for a while, it’s likely worth exploring the actual opportunities.
Question: 1) Will the U.S.’s rigid policy regarding these tariffs prove hubris and in turn hurt us in the global economy, as countries lose trust in us and seek out other reliable alliances? or 2) Will it prove to be successful? If so, when will we know? Let me know your thoughts.
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| I always say: 1) Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home/investment property out there for them; and 2) Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust. |
| * MANHATTAN MARKET NEWS * | | |
Spring has sprung...and inventory is still the name of the game. At the moment, we are actually starting to see a decent influx of property come on the market. Note: this is all relative but a great sign if the trajectory continues. Demand clearly remains quite high, as sales for the first quarter were over 25% higher than Q1 2024 across all of The Hamptons. The most deals were concentrated in East Hampton and Westhampton. Similar to Manhattan, we are hopeful this trend will continue and bring more ample product for buyers to consider. | | * WHAT REPRESENTATION LOOKS LIKE * | | |
Click on each respective image to watch the video.
| | * MORTGAGE & INTEREST RATES * | | Chart Courtesy: Wells Fargo | | * MOST RECENT MARKET REPORTS * | | Wanderer above the Sea of Fog | | Caspar David Friedrich (1774–1840) reimagined European landscape painting by portraying nature as a setting for profound spiritual and emotional encounters. Working in the vanguard of the German Romantic movement, which championed a radical new understanding of the bond between nature and the inner self, Friedrich developed pictorial subjects and strategies that emphasize the individuality, intimacy, open-endedness, and complexity of our responses to the natural world. The vision of the landscape that unfolds in his art—meditative, mysterious, and full of wonder—is still vital today. See more. | | Let's Compare Lists: Eater vs. Resy | |
The Hottest Restaurants
Open Right Now
| | Bánh Anh Em joins the list. | Lanna Apisukh/Eater NY | | |
Eater's Heat Map (click below) - Some of the Hottest Restaurants open right now:
This list will be updated monthly.
Eater editors get asked one question more than any other: Where should I eat right now? Here, we’ve put together a map of the latest Manhattan debuts drawing NYC’s dining obsessives.
New to the list in February: Papa San, a Hudson Yards restaurant from the Llama Inn folks; Kabawa, a Caribbean tasting menu spot from chef Paul Carmichael and the Momofuku Group in the East Village; Bánh Anh Em, a Vietnamese restaurant where bread and noodles are made in-house; and Cactus Wren, a more casual Lower East Side offering from a fine dining team..
For more New York dining recommendations, check out the new hotspots in Brooklyn and Queens.
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Hit List: Where In New York You’ll Want to Eat Right Now
| | Photo by Aaron Richter for Resy | | New to the Resy Hit List: Golden HOF, Cactus Wren, Lungi Restaurant, Salon Vert, and Banh Anh Em. See full posting here. |
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Cookbook Author, Culinary Journalist and Food Humorist©, Rob is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
Order: Short Order Dad ...A Great Gift for Dad!
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Rob is also on iHeart Radio & SPOTIFY with his ALL YOU CAN EAT podcast about delicious food, cooking and luxury travel.
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PRIVATE ONLINE COOKING CLASSES:
Ask Rob about his privates…by which he means that he offers customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
Now that ALL of us need to pitch in when it comes to feeding the family, I suggest picking up some serious tips from Rob. As he says, he went to cooking school so you don't have to. These sessions are fun and literally provide prized skills for upping your game. Enjoy. See Rob's intro here.
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage
its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and
internationally by inviting partners to high-light key properties in their
respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature
our important properties on their sites.
Learn more.
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Brown Harris Stevens
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| | | Disclaimer: The opinions and content in this newsletter are assembled solely by Roberto Cabrera (a licensed real estate broker in New York State) for informational purposes only and and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No financial or legal advice provided. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. All Coming Soon listings in NYC are simultaneously syndicated to the REBNY RLS. Equal Housing Opportunity. Everyone has unique circumstances and should consult the their own respective professionals. |
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