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The market is simmering...
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Is everyone waiting for 2026? Or will some (perhaps the savvy) choose to wade in ahead of it all. With so many factors to weigh, the question is what mood will actually prevail? Will we actually see lower long-term rates?...or not? Are sellers at that saturation point and tired of waiting and just list?...or will they hold on further until 2026? Will more buyers have to throw in the towel, place their faith in lower rates and dump their wasteful rentals? So much is simmering.
If you’ve been on this journey with me, you know my position is that it’s all about the rates, which have been relatively high and kept deal volume contained. The thinking right now is that rates are inevitably going to drop, if for no other reason that Trump will have nominated two people to the Fed’s committee between now and next Spring…including the chairmanship and he is dead set on lowering rates. The question here is, will it actually drop long-term mortgage rates? That is not a forgone conclusion…here’s why:
The Fed only controls short-term rates, the financial markets determine the longer term rates. If investors don’t believe that a rate drop by the Fed is justified (in this case because of tariffs and inflation risk), the markets will do their work to compensate for that. This rare occurrence, which if you recall, happened just one year ago (Fall of 2024) when the Fed dropped short rates (again, they do not control long term rates) by ¾ of a percent and the longer term rates actually jumped…in a seemingly reactionary fashion. In the chart below, pay close attention to the divergence of the curves starting in September of 2024.
| | Fed Funds Rate vs. 30-Year Mortgage Rate (2024-2025, Monthly) | | Yes, it was counter-intuitive; but with inflation still “hot” the markets took over, feeling that the cuts were unjustified and, as mentioned, compensated by letting the long term rates rise. Typically, when the economy is under less pressure, without tariff risks and potential inflation, the curves would run more in tandem. The marketplace is like a wave (not controllable); policy is merely a strategy to surf that wave and how best to manage it. Although rates have indeed eased since early 2024 (see chart), the public conflict now regarding the direction rates should take is between the Trump administration and The Fed. One economist called this “monetary stability vs. fiscal convenience.” | |
In the midst of cooling inflation, mortgage rates edged lower but
remained elevated compared to pre-2022 levels.
| | While both sides feel that rates are restrictive, our fiscal policy has no option but to deal with our enormous government deficits, whether we like it or not. Trump wants them lower because the interest on our debt is costly; the Fed simply feels that there’s more to it than just that. This battle will continue, but based on the Fed Funds Rate Probability chart rates are trending downward. | | CME FedWatch Probabilities Tool | | IF rates are indeed headed downward, that will unleash substantial demand, which has been corralled for years. When that happens, FOMO ensues…and don’t forget the “Great Wealth Transfer” which most estimates have at $100 Trillion (with a “T”) of wealth transferring by 2048…and it has already begun. Much of this wealth is expected to be geared at purchasing real estate. Once buyers conceptually digest that they’ve got more leverage than sellers hope they would, they will also realize that this could be the last fleeting moment of “real value” before the market accelerates away from them. So, let’s get ahead of it and go shopping! | | And Remember, I always say: 1) Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home/investment property out there for them; and 2) Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust. |
| * MANHATTAN MARKET NEWS * | | |
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In a market where there are a lot of off market deals, sometimes the stats underestimate the true level of activity at the high end above $10M. The said, the highest number of sales were in the $1-2M range. The market reveals a level of stability, in that neither buyers or sellers really have the upper hand and prices have been steady. Move-in ready and turnkey properties still remain in the highest demand. Various sources reveal median listing prices holding at around $2.7M, with actual sold prices at about $1.5M reflecting about 4% negotiability from ask.
Click here for a fun piece in Dan's Papers' Hedges Section, in which I was featured.
| | * WHAT REPRESENTATION LOOKS LIKE * | | |
Click on each respective image to watch the video.
| | Above charts courtesy: Mortgage News Daily | | Chart Courtesy: Wells Fargo | | * MOST RECENT MARKET REPORTS * | | |
Sixties Surreal is an ambitious, scholarly reappraisal of American art from 1958 to 1972, encompassing the work of more than 100 artists. This revisionist survey looks beyond now canonical movements to focus instead on the era’s most fundamental, if underrecognized, aesthetic current—an efflorescence of psychosexual, fantastical, and revolutionary tendencies, undergirded by the imprint of historical Surrealism and its broad dissemination.
Sixties Surreal recontextualizes some of the decade’s best-known figures alongside those only recently rediscovered. The exhibition gathers a range of works by artists including Diane Arbus, Lee Bontecou, Franklin Williams, Nancy Grossman, David Hammons, Linda Lomahaftewa, Mel Casas, Yayoi Kusama, Romare Bearden, and Louise Bourgeois, among others. In the 60s, many of these artists sought new strategies for connecting art back to a lived reality that seemed increasingly unreal due to rapid postwar transformation and the social, political, and technological upheavals of the later part of the decade. Read more. Opens September 24, 2025
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The 100 Best Restaurants
In New York City for 2025
(according to the New York Times - click here)
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Let's Compare Lists: Eater vs. Resy
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The Hottest Restaurants
Open Right Now
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Eater's Heat Map (click below) - Some of the Hottest Restaurants open right now. This list will be updated monthly.
Eater editors get asked one question more than any other: Where should I eat right now? Here, we’ve put together a map of the latest Manhattan debuts drawing NYC’s dining obsessives.
New to the list in September: Bartolo, the new old-world Madrid restaurant in the West Village, and Mommy Pai’s, the Thai Diner team’s new fast-casual chicken tender joint in Nolita.
For more New York dining recommendations, check out the new hotspots in Brooklyn and Queens.
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Hit List: Where In New York You’ll Want to Eat Right Now
| | At I Cavallini, Trofie with pesto and Belper Knolle, a cheese from Switzerland. Photo by Ben Hon for Resy | | |
New to the Hit List (September 2025):
I Cavallini, Odre, Crevette, Sugar Monk, Angel Indian Restaurant, Golden Hof – Korean Bar & Grill, Yamada, and Mommy Pai’s.
New Openings of Note: Fall restaurant opening season will be soon upon us, but until it gets into full swing, might we suggest checking out these newcomers? We’re talking Olmo in Bed-Stuy, Lex Yard at Waldorf Astoria New York, Chateau Royale, and Al Andalus to name a few. For a continuously updated list of new debuts, head here.
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ARE RESTAURANTS SPYING ON YOU?
Is it a restaurant
. . . or is it the CIA?
The show Cheers got it right: we all like to go where everybody knows our name. But how much more do we want our favorite restaurant to know about us? Read Article.
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Cookbook Author, Culinary Journalist and Food Humorist©, Rob is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
Order: Short Order Dad ...A Great Gift for Dad!
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Rob is also on iHeart Radio & SPOTIFY with his ALL YOU CAN EAT podcast about delicious food, cooking and luxury travel.
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PRIVATE ONLINE COOKING CLASSES:
Ask Rob about his privates…by which he means that he offers customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
Now that ALL of us need to pitch in when it comes to feeding the family, I suggest picking up some serious tips from Rob. As he says, he went to cooking school so you don't have to. These sessions are fun and literally provide prized skills for upping your game. Enjoy. See Rob's intro here.
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage
its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and
internationally by inviting partners to high-light key properties in their
respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature
our important properties on their sites.
Learn more.
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Brown Harris Stevens
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| | | Disclaimer: The opinions and content in this newsletter are assembled solely by Roberto Cabrera (a licensed real estate broker in New York State) for informational purposes only and and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No financial or legal advice provided. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. All Coming Soon listings in NYC are simultaneously syndicated to the REBNY RLS. Equal Housing Opportunity. Everyone has unique circumstances and should consult the their own respective professionals. |
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