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This time, Uncertainty is a
Win-Win for Buyers
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There are two polar opposite opinions among economists and financial squawk boxers about where this thing (the economy) is going and each side is convinced they're correct. Assuming either is right, will rates follow their respective schools of thought? It's MY opinion that it's a win-win scenario for buyers, either way.
The first point of view sees inflation setting in as a retroactive effect of tariffs, which JUST now might be translating into the metrics. I too believe, like we saw with "transitory inflation" that it takes time, but that inflation will eventually kick in. The questions is, how severe? The Fed's mandate is to monitor the labor market and inflation and adjust rates to temper whichever of these measures seem to be getting further out of line with their goals. At the moment the labor market is strong and inflation has moderated approaching their 2% target, just not quite there yet. Regardless, if inflation reverses course and begins to rise again, the Fed will indeed raise rates to deal with it. This could further prolong the period of moderate deal volume we’ve been experiencing for 3+ years now.
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“Core PCE Price Index Annual Change in the United States increased to 2.70 percent in May from 2.60 percent in April of 2025. In the long-term, the United States Core PCE Price Index Annual Change is projected to trend around 2.00 percent in 2026, according to our econometric models.”
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The second point of view sees rates dropping. These folks currently see rates as restrictive and expect the Fed to capitulate, setting a path for easing. Assisting this point of view is the emerging story of the Executive branch's growing public campaign and pressure on the Fed to drop rates. Could that pressure artificially effectuate a change prior to what many might consider the "right" time? Although Chairman Powell has been steadfast in is holding-pattern for now, his term will end soon and that power will be passed to someone more docile for the President to have his way. That statement, of course, is not a forgone conclusion as rates are determined by committee and not just the Chairman. It also does not consider the nuanced dynamics that exist within the committee itself. Regardless, those with this point of view are quite vocal about this need to reduce rates.
With these contrasting views in the ether...WHAT'S A BUYER TO DO?...Jump in!!
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Here's why...
In the first scenario, inflation would cause interest rates to rise. So for those concerned about a rise in borrowing costs and its effect on their purchasing power, buying early (soon) would be a preferred strategy. You would be securing a property during a period of currently moderate interest rates and fair pricing, while essentially buying the option to refinance later when rates do indeed moderate. During this time you would skip any further rate hikes while simultaneously and actively building equity in that property. "Win."
In the second scenario, the moment rates drop, increasing numbers of buyers will enter the marketplace and put upward pressure on prices. This increased demand further reduces the probability of even securing a property in the first place. I have always said that the greatest barrier to entry into the Manhattan marketplace is not the price, but the competition. People have been chomping at the bit to buy and have only been waiting for those rates to drop. So that's the dam which will give way; let's not forget the great generational transfer of wealth which has already begun. So here, you beat out the competition at a more fair price than later, and again...begin to build equity in a property. "Win."
So it's a Win-Win, either way it goes. The point here is not to try and time the market, but instead spend time IN the market. Particularly at this time of moderate demand, moderate interest rates and before that growing wave of generational wealth comes crashing in. It’s really an interesting moment in time….it’s “Win-Win”!
| | And Remember, I always say: 1) Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home/investment property out there for them; and 2) Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust. |
| * MANHATTAN MARKET NEWS * | | |
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The Hamptons real estate market this summer is dynamic to say the least. While sales prices are hitting record highs, sales are alos on the rise. Reports of a downturn, with summer rentals down as much as 30% compared to previous years, begs some context. Due to increased inventory, renters have more choice and negotiating power, yes; but it really depends on the segment you are in. For newer or "turn-key" properties, demand and activity remain high overall. For those seeking less-desirable properties, lower/stabilized rental prices have created opportunities to seize some good value. Short-term and last-minute deals are more common this year, with July outperforming August in lease activity.
For your ultimate RESY Guide to the Hamptons click here.
| | * WHAT REPRESENTATION LOOKS LIKE * | | |
Click on each respective image to watch the video.
| | Above charts courtesy: Mortgage News Daily | | Chart Courtesy: Wells Fargo | | * MOST RECENT MARKET REPORTS * | | |
Sargent and Paris explores the early career of American painter John Singer Sargent (1856–1925), from his arrival in Paris in 1874 as a precocious 18-year-old art student through the mid-1880s, when his infamous portrait Madame X was a scandalous success at the Paris Salon. Over the course of one extraordinary decade, Sargent achieved recognition by creating boldly ambitious portraits and figure paintings that pushed the boundaries of conventionality.
Immersed in a cosmopolitan circle of artists, writers, and patrons, Sargent was able to navigate a successful path through the French exhibition system while achieving acclaim and awards. Beyond the portrait studio, he traveled in search of inspiration for his art—finding subjects in Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and North Africa. This exhibition gathers Sargent’s diverse works from this period to illuminate his path to becoming an artist, which was indelibly shaped by his experiences in the French capital. These visually stunning works provide a compelling view of the Paris art world of the late 19th century. Hurry....ONLY THROUGH August 3rd.
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The 100 Best Restaurants
In New York City for 2025
(according to the New York Times - click here)
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Let's Compare Lists: Eater vs. Resy
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The Hottest Restaurants
Open Right Now
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Eater's Heat Map (click below) - Some of the Hottest Restaurants open right now. This list will be updated monthly.
Eater editors get asked one question more than any other: Where should I eat right now? Here, we’ve put together a map of the latest Manhattan debuts drawing NYC’s dining obsessives.
New to the list in July: Chelsea restaurant Haymarket with Caribbean-tinged modern European food; high-end French dining destination Le Chene in the West Village, and the Manhattan expansion of Brooklyn pizzeria Ops. And this time around, we’ve removed Golden HOF/NY Kimchi, Zimmi’s, and Smithereens.
For more New York dining recommendations, check out the new hotspots in Brooklyn and Queens.
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Hit List: Where In New York You’ll Want to Eat Right Now
| | Photo by Alex Lau, courtesy of Adda | | As New Yorkers head out of the city for summer vacations or weekend trips, July is prime time for checking out new restaurants before everyone else catches on. Our suggestions: The return of Dell’anima to the West Village; 56709 in Long Island City for Japanese City pop and creative cocktails; The Dynamo Room for old-school NYC steakhouse glamour near Penn Station; Comal for a taste of Mexico City on the Lower East Side; Ops East Village for some tavern-style pizzas; and Bar Tizio, Barbuto’s lovely wine bar sibling. See full posting here. |
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ARE RESTAURANTS SPYING ON YOU?
Is it a restaurant
. . . or is it the CIA?
The show Cheers got it right: we all like to go where everybody knows our name. But how much more do we want our favorite restaurant to know about us? Read Article.
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Cookbook Author, Culinary Journalist and Food Humorist©, Rob is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
Order: Short Order Dad ...A Great Gift for Dad!
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Rob is also on iHeart Radio & SPOTIFY with his ALL YOU CAN EAT podcast about delicious food, cooking and luxury travel.
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PRIVATE ONLINE COOKING CLASSES:
Ask Rob about his privates…by which he means that he offers customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
Now that ALL of us need to pitch in when it comes to feeding the family, I suggest picking up some serious tips from Rob. As he says, he went to cooking school so you don't have to. These sessions are fun and literally provide prized skills for upping your game. Enjoy. See Rob's intro here.
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage
its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and
internationally by inviting partners to high-light key properties in their
respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature
our important properties on their sites.
Learn more.
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Brown Harris Stevens
1934 Broadway
New York, NY 10023
917-701 3907
| | | Disclaimer: The opinions and content in this newsletter are assembled solely by Roberto Cabrera (a licensed real estate broker in New York State) for informational purposes only and and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No financial or legal advice provided. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. All Coming Soon listings in NYC are simultaneously syndicated to the REBNY RLS. Equal Housing Opportunity. Everyone has unique circumstances and should consult the their own respective professionals. |
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