Manhattan is on S A L E !
The market is showing positive signs, as activity has jumped. August of 2019 actually outperformed August of last year. The counter balancing increase in rents is now, once again, seemingly producing an increase in the numbers of home buyers, as opposed to renters. Substantial price reductions and surprising low interest rates, not seen in years, are making purchasing attractive. Active buyers are further noticing the willingness of "real" sellers to negotiate even more. As I had mentioned before, I believe Manhattan is on "Sale" and that it is likely the greatest buying opportunity, in Manhattan, of our lifetime.
 
In my 20+ years, I have seen innumerable market turnarounds and they are notoriously quick, often times leaving those trying to time the market empty handed. This time with so much inventory and a dearth of foreign buyers, it is unlikely to turn as abruptly as the past, but it (this) could mark a change in the markets trajectory.
 
For buyers, the Fall market always presents tremendous opportunity, as sellers understand the window for consummating a deal is short. If sellers do not have offers or have not come to a deal with someone by the second week of November, they know they may not see any offers until Spring. As a result, seller's ears are open to hearing any offers. In this particular year that futility could be even more severe considering the impending Presidential election year. The uncertainty that notoriously ensues is a nightmare for sellers, but again, an enormous opportunity for buyers.
 
Anecdote : there is a lot of chatter about a looming recession, which is indeed likely. That said, we must remember that recessions are most commonly brief, lasting only several months to a year. It is defined as two successive quarters of a fall in GDP. It should not be confused with the most recent recession in our minds, The Great Recession,  in which there was a total meltdown and which lasted for many years. In recent years, the market has already made a substantial adjustment and the dynamics in our economic policy have been substantially strengthened. Successful real estate investor Alan Schnurman wrote, "When you're crying, you should be buying. Real estate is basic economics. Buy when there is more supply than demand. Sell when there is more demand than supply."
 
Keep in mind that right now interest rates are at eyebrow-raising lows and access to that money is relatively easy. In the event of an actual "recession", which will certainly be proclaimed in the press, lending institutions will tighten the requirements to access their capital. So if you are solely trying to "time" the market for price, please recognize there are other counter-balancing elements to the equation.
 
QUESTION:   
Are you prepared to dive in? You should always know what you are in a position to buy or sell at all times. If you don't know, reacquaint yourself with the marketplace. What is your property worth? What can you afford to buy? Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home or investment property out there for them.  

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One of a Kind
T H E   B R E N T M O R E
88 Central Park West
  

Location, Location, Location...Views, Grandeur...


Approximately 3,500 sqft with sweeping views overlooking Central Park. 


Being the only true boutique residence on this coveted corridor of CPW makes this cooperative one of the most exclusive homes in the city.  
Asking $13.495M. See full listing details here.  


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The foreign buyer fallout
Chinese buyers aren't the only international investors retreating from NYC's condo market amid today's unprecedented wave of global turmoil 
By Sylvia Varnham O'Regan 
 
Excerpt:   The decline in Chinese buyers - largely the result of capital controls instituted in late 2016 that restrict how much money citizens can take out of the country - is, not surprisingly, one of the biggest components of the fall in foreign capital. But it's not just Chinese buyers taking a step back. Sources say they've seen a slump in buyers from multiple countries, including Russia, Italy and parts of the Middle East.

"There has been a substantial drop-off from the former Soviet Union, and more recently from Asia and the Middle East as well," said Edward Mermelstein, a Russian-American attorney who advises wealthy clients on global investment opportunities.

Even more worrying for many in the real estate world is that, unlike in the past, there don't seem to be any new groups emerging to fill the void.

"Foreign capital across the globe has slowed down," said Manhattan real estate attorney Pierre Debbas, of Romer Debbas, adding that a strong U.S. dollar and a saturation of supply in the high-end condo market have also played a role.

Mermelstein said domestic buyers will need to fill the shortfall. "The emerging markets that were keeping the high-end real estate market on fire, especially in New York and other major U.S. markets - that is no longer the case," he said. Read more
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Are apartment rents highest in the fall?  
 
 
Excerpt from Compound's Newsletter:     

"With the end of summer comes the peak of the rental market, as young people fan out all over the country, looking to begin new chapters of their lives. Conventional wisdom dictates that rents are significantly lower in winter months (since fewer people tend to move then, especially in the colder climes.) That would mean that a thrifty renter ought to wait until winter to move to save hundreds of dollars a month in rent.  Right?

Don't get too excited! It turns out that apartment rents tend not to vary all that much between peak and low seasons. In major urban markets like New York City, LA, Chicago, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Diego and Charlotte, rents only tend to rise and fall about 4% between the high- and low-seasons. On a $2,000/month apartment, that's only an $80 swing.  (According to studies here and here).  However, from the landlord's point of view, a 4% change in rent is substantial as it means a 4% change in their rental revenue.


In highly seasonal markets like Miami, the swing is more like 6% between the highs and lows. Atlanta shows some of the biggest variability, with swings of up to 8%.

In most markets across the country, rents are generally higher during the summer months and lower in the months leading to winter, when units tend to linger on the market and landlords are more willing to negotiate. Discounts are least likely in April and May, and most likely in October, marking the beginning and end of the busy season. 

According to StreetEasy, in New York City (this country's largest rental market), the biggest discounting period begins in September and lasts through November. In October, landlords offer deep discounts to try to clear out leftover inventory before the winter doldrums hit. By May, rents start to tick back up again."  
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Manhattan's Smaller Apartments Are

the Priciest Since 2008 
 
 
Seekers of smaller apartments in Manhattan have had plenty of company this summer. Swelling demand by both newcomers and locals drove rents for studios and one-bedrooms to an 11-year high.
The monthly median for a studio in July and August was $2,700, the highest it's been since June 2008, according to figures released Thursday by appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate. One-bedroom units rented for a median of $3,595, a record in data going back to the beginning of that year. Read more


*    M O R T G A G E S  &  I N T E R E S T   R A T E S    *

The 30 year Jumbo is off over an entire percentage point since October of last year (see below). Now see the example below and watch your purchasing power go up. 

It is impossible to predict how long this will last, so the opportunity must be taken seriously. In the example below, consider the effect that just 1% in interest rates makes to to your purchasing power. Then below, look at where rates actually are and where they were, just months ago.
Interest Rates
 
Example below reflects 3.75% vs. 4.75% 
 
$1M borrowed at 3.75% = $4,631/month
$1M borrowed at 4.75% = $5,216/month
 
That is a difference of $585/month or $7,020/year.
 
Alternatively, we could look at it this way: 
 
At 3.75%, $4,631/month will afford you a $1M mortgage.
At 4.75%, $4,631/month will afford you only a $887,800 mortgage.    
 
Last year 30 year jumbo mortgages hovered close to 4.5%. Interestingly, just a few months ago rates actually popped up as high as 4.625% (see chart below).  We are off an entire point since then. Question is, could they go back up just as quickly?
Rates as of 9/13/2019 @ 8:30am EST
JUMBO



Loan Type
MI Type
Interest Rate
APR
7/1 ARM Jumbo

2.500%
3.444%
10/1 ARM Jumbo

2.750%
3.345%
30-Yr Fixed Jumbo

3.375%
3.375%
15-Yr Fixed Jumbo

3.000%
3.000%

Courtesy: Wells Fargo
Rates back on 10/7/18
JUMBO



Loan Type
MI Type
Interest Rate
APR
7/1 ARM Jumbo

4.000%
4.649%
10/1 ARM Jumbo

4.250%
4.625%
30-Yr Fixed Jumbo

4.625%
4.625%
15-Yr Fixed Jumbo

4.375%
4.375%

Courtesy: Wells Fargo
GET PRE-APPROVED AND LOCK IN YOUR RATE FOR AS LONG AS YOU CAN

*   M A R K E T   R E P O R T S   &   R E S O U R C E S   *




2nd Quarter 2019 Market Report Sales
Manhattan:  click here
Brooklyn: click here
Hamptons: click here

Townhouse Report: 1st Half 2019: click here

August Inventory Report: click here 
August Economics - The Heym Report: click here 

Sell Your Property:  click here
Buying in New York:  click here
Interactive Rent vs. Buy Calculator:
(courtesy NY Times)  click here

Other Markets:
Miami: click here
Miami Beach: click here
Palm Beach:  click here

To view video in larger format click here. Or follow on Instagram at @rcabrera1 . 

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Apollo's Muse at " The Met"
The Moon in the Age of Photography
On July 20, 1969, half a billion viewers around the world watched as the first images of American astronauts on the moon were beamed back to the earth. The result of decades of technical innovation, this thrilling moment in the history of images radically expanded the limits of human vision.

Celebrating the fiftieth anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing, Apollo's Muse: The Moon in the Age of Photography surveys visual representations of the moon from the dawn of photography through the present. In addition to photographs, the show features a selection of related drawings, prints, paintings, films, astronomical instruments,  and cameras used by Apollo astronauts.

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My Pick -   Maison Pickle 
Just go!!!!!
...it's great...and fun!  Go hungry....and get the 24 layer cake!  Yep, 24 layers!  
Upper West Side - 84th x Broadway 

The Hottest Restaurants in Manhattan Right Now 
The Hottest Restaurants in Manhattan Right Now.
Eater editors get asked one question more than any other: Where should I eat right now? NYC dining obsessives want to know what's new, what's hot, and what is going to be the next big hit in the greatest dining city on earth. So here it is, a guide to the hottest restaurants in Manhattan this month. See the list.  Image of Lamalo.
Francesco Sapienza/Lamalo [Official Photo]

"Short Order Dad "      by Robert Rosenthal





The Food Humorist©, is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before. 
Rob's 2 Minute Story
Order:   Short Order Dad  for Father's Day!

Cook With Rob !!! - Book NOW !!!
French Bistro and Brasserie Classics -   With old-school French technique making a return as one of the hottest trends in restaurants today, this is the class to learn how to master some of its fundamental elements. Menu may include steak au poivre ; braised leeks; salade verte  with classic Dijon vinaigrette; pomme purée  with garlic confit; and red wine-poached pears.
THURS Oct 10, 2019 | 7:00PM - 9:30PM
Class size is limited, so sign up now. Here's the LINK.

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New York City   The Hamptons   Palm Beach  *  Miami

With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. learn more...

About Roberto...
 
  • Recognized by New York Magazine & Five Star Professional as one of the "most accomplished real estate professionals in New York City."
     
  • Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents" for avg. sales price of $4.350M.
     
  • Recognized member of the 2016 "TOWN Elite" class
     
  • Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M to date. (StreetEasy)
     
  • Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE)
     
  • Trivia: Won the 2015 New York Times NCAA Basketball Pool.

Roberto Cabrera
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker
New York City  *  The Hamptons  *  Palm Beach  *  Miami

rcabrera@bhsusa.com
o: 212-906-0554 
m:  917-701-3907