We made a few small portfolio changes in the month of February. The changes reflect my increasing belief that we will continue to experience multiple quarters of "surprisingly" strong economic growth and risk asset performance, secondary to ongoing fiscal stimulus and the start of a new business cycle.
I sold our high free cash flow "inflation-busting" ETFs (tickers: COWZ and CALF), as well as Lockheed Martin (LMT).
In their place, I have added three diversified large cap stocks:
- The second largest US semiconductor company: Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO)
- Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B)
- Healthcare behemoth: Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
I have also added some diversity to our fixed income allocation with Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY). Annaly is a huge player in the mortgage backed security space (which I consider to be "backed by" the Federal Reserve), and offers an impressive current yield of approximately 13%.
You have probably noticed that bitcoin has been on a tear since the beginning of the year and approval of the spot bitcoin ETFs. While the related gains within our portfolios have already been substantial, I think that there is much more to come. This is just an educated guess, but I continue to maintain a 4Q 2025 price target for bitcoin of $475,000... which may actually prove to be conservative. (Note that past performance is not indicative of future returns.)
In light of these expectations, I am strongly inclined to allow our winning bitcoin proxy positions to continue to run, rather than traditional methods of "taking profits." Doing so at this point would be akin to trimming the flowers in the garden, while watering the weeds, as the old saying goes.
We have a good thing going... let's let it continue to play out.
Our Vailshire SMA portfolios remain allocated towards a 40% equity, 40% sound money, and 20% fixed income structure:
Vailshire's Aggressive separately managed accounts (SMAs) are allocated as follows (current starter % position size):
EQUITIES (40%)
- 2% AAPL
- 2% ADBE
- 2% AMZN
- 2% AVGO
- 2% AZO
- 2% BRK.B
- 2% GOOGL
- 2% LLY
- 2% MA
- 2% MELI
- 2% MSCI
- 2% MSFT
- 2% NVDA
- 2% NVR
- 2% SHOP
- 2% SQ
- 2% TPL
- 2% TSLA
- 2% TT
- 2% V
SOUND MONEY (40%)
- 15% FBTC (spot bitcoin ETF)
- 5% FNV (gold royalty)
- 15% MSTR (bitcoin proxy)
- 2.5% WGMI (bitcoin miner ETF)
- 2.5% cash
FIXED INCOME (20%)
Vailshire's Moderate separately managed accounts (SMAs) are allocated as follows (current starter % position size):
EQUITIES (40%)
- 2% AAPL
- 2% ADBE
- 2% AMZN
- 2% AVGO
- 2% AZO
- 2% BRK.B
- 2% GOOGL
- 2% LLY
- 2% MA
- 2% MELI
- 2% MSCI
- 2% MSFT
- 2% NVDA
- 2% NVR
- 2% SHOP
- 2% SQ
- 2% TPL
- 2% TSLA
- 2% TT
- 2% V
SOUND MONEY (40%)
- 10% FBTC (spot bitcoin ETF)
- 10% FNV (gold royalty)
- 10% MSTR (bitcoin proxy)
- 2.5% WGMI (bitcoin miner ETF)
- 7.5% cash
FIXED INCOME (20%)
Vailshire's Conservative separately managed accounts (SMAs) are long-only and are allocated as follows (current starter % position size):
EQUITIES (40%)
- 2% AAPL
- 2% ADBE
- 2% AMZN
- 2% AVGO
- 2% AZO
- 2% BRK.B
- 2% GOOGL
- 2% LLY
- 2% MA
- 2% MELI
- 2% MSCI
- 2% MSFT
- 2% NVDA
- 2% NVR
- 2% SHOP
- 2% SQ
- 2% TPL
- 2% TSLA
- 2% TT
- 2% V
SOUND MONEY (40%)
- 10% BLOK (bitcoin proxy ETF)
- 12.5% FNV (gold royalty)
- 7.5% MSTR (bitcoin proxy)
- 10% cash
FIXED INCOME (20%)
Vailshire's Ultra Conservative separately managed accounts (SMAs) are long-only and are allocated as follows (current starter % position size):
EQUITIES (40%)
- 2% AAPL
- 2% ADBE
- 2% AMZN
- 2% AVGO
- 2% AZO
- 2% BRK.B
- 2% GOOGL
- 2% LMT
- 2% MA
- 2% MELI
- 2% MSCI
- 2% MSFT
- 2% NVDA
- 2% NVR
- 2% SHOP
- 2% SQ
- 2% TPL
- 2% TSLA
- 2% TT
- 2% V
SOUND MONEY (40%)
- 10% FBTC (spot bitcoin ETF)
- 15% FNV (gold royalty)
- 2.5% MSTR (bitcoin proxy)
- 12.5% cash
FIXED INCOME (20%)
Vailshire's Bitcoin Proxy separately managed accounts (SMAs) are allocated as follows (current starter % position size):
- 49% FBTC (spot bitcoin ETF)
- 49% MSTR (bitcoin proxy)
- 2% cash
If you are a Vailshire client, feel free to log in to your account(s) at Interactive Brokers and see how your own portfolios are positioned. (It's a good idea to log in and review your account(s) at least quarterly, just to make sure your settings and demographics are up to date.)
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