Weekly Market Bullets

for the week ending 8/14/2026

• US Equity Markets hit another record high last week following tamer inflation data that raised hopes the Fed may not need to raise rates as much as feared. The S&P 500 was up 0.4% for the week and is now up 13.7% for the year. The Nasdaq rose 0.1% for the week to bring its gains for the year to 15.0%, while the Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) rallied 1.1% for the week and is now up 23.6% for the year.

• Global Equity Markets were up last week, supported by notable gains in Japan on strong earnings and support for the Yen. Developed Markets were up 0.6% for the week and are now up 13.1% for the year. Emerging Markets increased 2.6% for the week to bring their gains for the year to 21.1%.

• US Inflation eased while Retail Sales were weak in July, lowering expectations for a Fed rate hike. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July rose 3.4% from a year down, down from 3.5% in June. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, was up 2.5% from a year ago, down from 2.6% in June. Retail Sales for July declined 0.6% from a month ago, much worse than expected. As a result, investors are now only placing ~33% probability that the Fed raises rates at its next meeting in September, down from ~70% at the end of July.

• The premium valuation for US Equities compared to International Equities has returned to average. US equities historically trade at a 20-30% premium valuation compared to international equities, but that premium has declined meaningfully in 2026. According to Baird Strategas, in late 2025, US equities traded at a roughly 60% premium to international stocks, and that has dropped to about 20% currently, its lowest levels since 2020. Interestingly, US earnings growth (~32% ex items) is substantially higher than international earnings growth (~15%), which likely explains the decline.

Market Data

for the week ending 8/14/2026