Weekly Market Bullets

for the week ending 9/5/2025

• US Equity Markets touched another all-time high last week, as weak economic data increased the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% for the week and is now up 10.2% for the year. The Nasdaq was up 1.1% for the week to bring its gains for the year to 12.4%, while the Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) increased 1.0% for the week and is now up 7.2% for the year.

• Global Equity Markets rose last week, as some tariffs on Japanese goods were formally lowered. Developed Markets were up 0.3% for the week and are now up 20.7% for the year. Emerging Markets increased 1.4% for the week to bring its gains for the year to 18.7%.

• Interest Rates drop on weak Payroll Data. Payroll gains for August came in at a paltry 22K, well below consensus of 75K and down from 79K in July. The Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2% in July. The soft Payroll number caused rates to drop, with the yield on the US 10-Year Treasury closing at 4.07% vs. 4.22% the prior week. Investors now expect the Fed to cut rates by 0.25% at each of its 3 meetings for the balance of the year.

• Despite Payroll weakness, timely consumer spending data is holding up. According to credit card transaction data over the past month, consumer spending was up about 2.5% from a year-ago, suggesting the back-to-school trends are favorable. Notably, while some surveys have indicated a potential slowdown in holiday season spending, back-to-school spending has historically been a good indicator for holiday shopping activity.

Market Data

for the week ending 9/5/2025