Weekly Market Bullets

for the week ending 10/4/2024

• US Equity Markets managed small gains last week despite rising tensions in the Middle East and a spike in oil prices, as strong labor-related data increased hopes for a soft landing for the US economy. The S&P 500 was up 0.2% for the week to bring its gains for the year to 20.6%. The Nasdaq rose 0.1% for the week and is now up 20.8% for the year, while the Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) dropped 0.5% for the week to bring its gains for the year to 9.2%.

• Global Equity Markets saw profit-taking last week following the recent surge from China's stimulus announcement as investors focused on the Middle East. Developed Markets declined 3.3% for the week and are now up 8.4% for the year. Emerging Markets rose 0.4% for the week on continued momentum in China to bring its gains for the year to 15.2%.

• Interest rates spiked higher on strong labor-related data. Payroll gains for September came in at 254K, well above expectations and much stronger than August's 159K. The Unemployment Rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2% in August, also better than forecasts. As a result, the yield on the US 10-Year Treasury rose to 3.98% from 3.75% the prior week. Investors now believe the Fed will only cut rates by another 0.50% by the end of the year, down from 1.0% the prior week.

• History suggests Q4 equity returns should be positive given market strength through Q3. The S&P 500 was up over 20% for the year through Q3 2024. In prior years when returns have been that strong, the median return for the S&P 500 in Q4 has been 5.3%. The average return, which includes outlier down years such as 1987, is still 4.3%.

Market Data

for the week ending 10/4/2024