Weekly Market Bullets

for the week ending 9/11/2026

• US Equity Markets fell last week as the escalating conflict in the Middle East drove oil prices sharply higher, stoked inflation concerns, and caused interest rates to rise. The S&P 500 declined 0.8% for the week and is now up 11.9% for the year. The Nasdaq dropped 0.7% for the week to bring its gains for the year to 13.3%, while the Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) tumbled 2.4% for the week on rising rate concerns and is now up 17.0% for the year.

• Global Equity Markets declined last week following a rate hike by the European Central Bank, growing expectations for higher rates in Japan, and higher oil prices. Developed Markets fell 1.5% for the week and are now up 10.6% for the year. Emerging Markets were down 0.3% for the week to bring their gains for the year to 22.6%.

• US Interest Rates rose last week on higher inflation data and energy prices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose 3.4% from a year ago, slightly worse than expectations and flat from July. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, was up 2.4% from a year ago, in line with expectations and down slightly from July. Combined with a 9.6% increase in oil prices, this led to the yield on the US 10-Year Treasury closing the week at 4.97% vs. 4.78% the prior week. The Street is placing an 87% probability that the Fed raises rates by 0.25% at its upcoming meeting.

• The First Fed Rate Hike is typically not alarming for equities. According to Baird Strategas, since the early 1980s, the average return for the S&P 500 three months after the first Fed rate hike is 1.2%, though the median return is -1.8%. The average return six months after the first Fed rate hike is 5.7% with a median return of 7.3%. If indeed the Fed raises rates at its upcoming meeting, investor focus will likely shift to how many hikes are likely, which could have a more meaningful impact on equity prices.

Market Data

for the week ending 9/11/2026