US Equity Markets had a choppy week last week, as enthusiasm around tech headlines gave way to interest rate concerns following healthy labor data and and an upward revision to GDP for Q2. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% for the week and is now up 13.0% for the year. The Nasdaq dropped 0.7% for the week to bring its gains for the year to 16.4%, while the Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) was down 0.6% for the week and is now up 9.2% for the year.
Global Equity Markets dropped last week, as more tariff announcements from President Trump impacted markets. Developed Markets declined 0.6% for the week and are now up 21.5% for the year. Emerging Markets fell 1.1% for the week to bring its gains for the year to 23.3%.
US Inflation Data largely remains steady. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for August rose 2.7% from a year ago, in line with expectations and a touch higher than 2.6% in July. The Core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.9% from a year ago, also in line with expectations and similar to July levels.
Of Interest to Us
The probability of a US recession continues to decline. According to Apollo Group, the consensus for the US entering into an economic recession over the next 12 months has dropped to 30%, down from over 40% when the tariffs were announced earlier this year.
Market Data
for the week ending 9/26/2025
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