Weekly Market Bullets

for the week ending 9/12/2025

• US Equity Markets continued to march higher last week, helped by US inflation data that likely keep expected Fed rates cuts on the table. The S&P 500 was up 1.6% for the week and is now up 12.0% for the year. The Nasdaq rose 2.0% for the week to bring its gains for the year to 14.7%, while the Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) posted a more modest 0.3% increase for the week and is now up 7.5% for the year.

• Global Equity Markets were up last week, as positive economic data out of Asia and a potential US trade deal with India boosted markets. Developed Markets rose 1.1% for the week and are now up 22.1% for the year. Emerging Markets increased 3.9% for the week to bring its gains for the year to 23.3%.

• US Inflation remains in check, as Interest Rates held steady ahead of the upcoming Fed Meeting. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August was up 2.9% from a year ago, in line with expectations and up from 2.7% in July. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, was up 3.1%, also in line with expectations and consistent with July. The yieid on the US 10-Year Treasury closed the week at 4.07% flat from the prior week. Investors have placed a 74% probability that the Fed will lower rates by 0.25% at each of its 3 meetings for the balance of the year.

• The US Budget Deficit has declined for 5 of the past 6 months, as US tax receipts hit an all-time high. According to Strategas, the US budget deficit for August marks the fifth time in the past six months that it has declined from the same month a year ago. During that time, the US deficit has fallen by $227 billion. At the same time, US tax receipts for August rose 12%, hitting a record high, though government spending and higher interest costs on the debt are still resulting in higher deficits. The US deficit for FY2025 is projected to be about $1.8 trillion.

Market Data

for the week ending 9/12/2025