Weekly Market Bullets

for the week ending 11/1/2024

• US Equity Markets declined last week ahead of the election as interest rates continued to move higher and earnings reports from some mega cap stocks disappointed investors. The S&P 500 fell 1.4% for the week to bring its gains for the year to 20.1%. The Nasdaq dropped 1.5% for the week and is now up 21.5% for the year, while the Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) eked out a 0.1% gain for the week to bring its gains for the year to 9.0%.

• Global Equity Markets dropped last week as nervous investors await the outcome of US elections amidst elevated geopolitical tensions. Developed Markets were down 1.1% for the week and are now up 5.1% for the year. Emerging Markets also declined 1.1% for the week to bring its gains for the year to 9.6%.

• Interest Rates continued their march higher despite weaker US economic data last week. The yield on the US 10-Year Treasury closed last week at 4.39% vs. the prior week of 4.24%. This occurred despite weak Payroll gains for October of just 12K, well below projections of 120K and down from September levels of 223K. The initial estimate of US economic growth for Q3 came out at 2.8%, below expectations of 3.0%.

• Market predictors of the outcome of the Presidential election are mixed, suggesting it remains a toss-up. On one hand, if the S&P 500 shows positive gains 3 months prior to the election, then the incumbent wins 88% of the time. The S&P 500 is up over 7% from 3 months ago, suggesting a Harris victory. On the other hand, over the past several weeks, the sectors expected to benefit more from a Trump victory have been notably outperforming those sectors expected to benefit from a Harris administration, suggesting a Trump victory. Let's just hope there is a clear and uncontested outcome!

Market Data

for the week ending 11/1/2024