Weekly Market Bullets

for the week ending 10/31/2025

• US Equity Markets were mixed last week, as progress on US-China trade was offset by concerns that the Fed may not lower rates as much as markets had been expecting. The S&P 500 increased 0.7% for the week and is now up 16.3% for the year. The Nasdaq was up 2.2% for the week on strong technology earnings reports to bring its gains for the year to 22.9%, while the Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) fell 1.4% for the week on higher rates and is now up 11.2% for the year.

• Global Equity Markets were also mixed last week, as the truce between the US and China boosted Asian equities while mixed economic data pressured European stocks. Developed Markets dropped 0.4% for the week and are now up 23.9% for the year. Emerging Markets rose 0.9% for the week to bring its gains for the year to 30.3%.

• US Interest Rates moved higher despite Fed rate cuts. As expected, the Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by 0.25% at its meeting last week, but Chairman Powell indicated that it was not a "foregone conclusion" that rates would be cut again at its next meeting in December, as investors had expected. As a result, the yield on the US 10-Year Treasury increased to 4.08% from 4.02% the prior week. The Street is currently placing a 63% probability that the Fed lowers rates at its next meeting, down from over 90% the prior week.

• US-bound container ships from China are back near the post-Liberation Day lows. According to Strategas Group, the daily number of container ships leaving China for the US as of late October has fallen to ~47, down from highs of around 70 over the summer and approaching the post-Liberation Day lows of ~42. We will see whether the recent US-China trade truce starts to turn that around.

Market Data

for the week ending 10/31/2025