Weekly Market Bullets

for the week ending 3/20/2026

• US Equity Markets posted their fourth consecutive week of declines, once again driven by oil prices and uncertainty in the Middle East. The S&P 500 declined 1.9% for the week and is now down 5.0% for the year. The Nasdaq fell 2.1% for the week to bring its losses for the year to down 6.9%, while the Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) dropped 1.7% for the week and is now down 1.8% for the year.

• Global Equity Markets dropped as well last week as the Iran war and rising energy prices increase concerns about a possible global recession. Developed Markets fell 2.3% for the week, erasing its gains for the year, now down 1.8% for the year. Emerging Markets were down 0.4% for the week though still remains up 4.2% for the year.

• Interest Rates Continue to move higher amid rising inflation concerns. The Fed met last week and, as expected, chose not to lower interest rates, watchful of rising oil prices given oil is an important input cost for numerous products. The yield on the US 10-Year Treasury closed the week at 4.38% vs. 4.28% the prior week and 4.17% at the end of 2025. Investors now do not expect any Fed rate cuts in 2026, down from an expected two rate cuts prior to the Iran conflict.

• Only Minimal Traffic Going Through the Strait of Hormuz. While confirmed numbers are not available, tracking services show that an average of only 3 vessels per day went through the Strait of Hormuz last week. For context, in late February prior to the current conflict with Iran, there were an average of ~138 vessels going through the Strait. Fears of attacks and skyrocketing insurance costs are the reasons for the decline. Oil prices will likely remain elevated until traffic through the Strait notably increases.

Market Data

for the week ending 3/20/2026