Weekly Market Bullets

for the week ending 3/27/2026

• US Equity Markets declined again last week as oil prices hit their highest weekly close since 2022, though under the surface, the markets were better, highlighting ongoing investor rotation. The S&P 500 dropped 2.1% for the week and is now down 7.0% for the year. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index was down 1.1% for the week and has outperformed so far this year, only down 1.6%. The Nasdaq fell 3.2% for the week amid a sharp sell-off in technology stocks to bring its losses for the year to down 9.9%, while the Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) rose 0.5% for the week and is now down 1.3% for the year.

• Global Equity Markets were mixed last week as the weight of higher oil prices was offset by hopes for some progress on the Strait of Hormuz. Developed Markets eked out a 0.1% gain for the week and are down 1.8% for the year. Emerging Markets were fell 1.8% for the week but remain up 2.3% for the year.

• Interest Rates increased again last week amid continued inflation concerns. The yield on the US 10-Year Treasury closed the week at 4.43% vs. 4.38% the prior week and 4.17% at the end of 2025. Investors now believe there is only a 3% probability that the Fed will lower rates again in 2026 compared to a 25% probability that the Fed will raise rates in 2026.

• Consumer Sentiment has fallen notably, but consumer demand has stayed healthy. Consumer sentiment has hit its lowest level since the tariff announcements last year, understandably leading to concerns about whether the consumer will curtail spending. But consumer spending data have remained remarkably resilient since the start of the conflict with Iran, with weekly data for such things as same-store retail sales, hotel demand, and airport arrivals all continuing to show steady gains. If the Iran situation can get resolved soon, it appears that the economic momentum coming into 2026 may be enough to overcome the current challenges.

Market Data

for the week ending 3/27/2026