Weekly Market Bullets

for the week ending 10/2/2026

• US Equity Markets were generally down last week as persistent pressure from higher interest rates offset continued strength in technology stocks. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% for the week and is now up 12.8% for the year. The Nasdaq was up 0.5% for the week to bring its gains for the year to 17.0%, while the Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) dropped 0.2% for the week and is now up 14.1% for the year.

• Global Equity Markets declined last week as elevated oil prices and rising yields weighed on markets. Developed Markets were down 1.7% for the week and are now up 7.2% for the year. Emerging Markets fell 2.1% for the week to bring their gains for the year to 21.7%.

• US Payroll Data missed expectations, potentially easing pressure on the Fed to raise rates. Payroll gains for September totaled 29K, well below consensus and down from 133K in August. The Unemployment Rate for September ticked up to 4.2% vs. 4.1% in August, while Average Hourly Earnings rose 3.0% from a year ago, down from 3.1% in August. While investors still expect the Fed to raise rates another time before year-end, they now expect that hike to occur in December instead of October.

• Is Oil Now Coming out of the Middle East? According to Kpler, a highly credible source for global oil flow data, roughly 16.5 million barrels/day of oil came out of the Persian Gulf region from September 1-28. Prior to the conflict with Iran, an estimated 18.2 million barrels/day of oil were exported by Middle East countries. The shortfall is largely due to Iran, which exported ~1.7 million barrels/day before the conflict and did not export any oil in September. While more oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz, exporters have found other transportation means including via the Red Sea and loading tankers outside of Hormuz. It may also suggest the US blockade is working.

Market Data

for the week ending 10/2/2026