Weekly Market Bullets

for the week ending 4/4/2025

• US Equity Markets plunged last week, as announced tariffs by President Trump were much worse than anticipated and China quickly retaliated, raising more concerns about the outlook for the US economy. The S&P 500 tumbled 9.1% for the week to bring is losses for the year to down 13.7%. The Nasdaq dropped 10.0% for the week and is now down 19.3% for the year, while the Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) declined 9.7% for the week to bring its losses for the year to down 18.1%.

• Global Equity Markets also dropped notably last week, weighed down by the US tariff announcements. Developed Markets fell 6.8% for the week but remain up a fractional 0.2% for the year. Emerging Markets were down 3.0% for the week and are now up 1.1% for the year.

• US Interest Rates fell as tariffs increased economic worries. Some Fed officials spoke after the tariffs were announced, acknowledging they were higher than expected, but suggesting they would not yet accelerate expectations for rate cuts. Despite that, the yield on the US 10-Year Treasury dropped below 4% before closing at 4.01% vs. 4.24% the prior week, the lowest level since October 2024. Investors are now pricing in 4 rate cuts in 2025, up from 2 cuts a couple of weeks ago.

• US Jobs and Wages are still holding strong. Payroll gains for March totaled 228K, well above expectations and up from 117K in February. Average Hourly Earnings increased 3.8% from a year ago, down from 4.0% in February but still at historically healthy levels. While this occurred before tariff announcements, a relatively healthy consumer would go a long way to getting us through any near-term economic challenges.

Market Data

for the week ending 4/4/2025