Weekly Market Bullets

for the week ending 6/20/2025

• US Equity Markets were little changed last week in holiday-shortened trading, as indecision around the Israel-Iran situation and the Fed leaving rates unchanged led investors to stand down. The S&P 500 fell 0.2% for the week and is now up 1.5% for the year. The Nasdaq rose 0.2% for the week to bring its gains for the year to 0.7%. The Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) increased 0.4% for the week and is now down 5.4% for the year.

• Global Equity Markets dropped last week as investors wait the next actions between Israel and Iran. Developed Markets fell 1.4% for the week and are now up 13.6% for the year. Emerging Markets ticked down a fractional 0.02% for the week and are now up 10.6% for the year.

• US Interest Rates ticked down as the Fed left rates unchanged at its meeting last week. The yield on the US 2-Year Treasury dropped to 3.91% from 3.95% the prior week, while the 10-Year Treasury fell to 4.38% from 4.40%. Investors are currently pricing in two rate cuts by the Fed by the end of the year.

• Roughly 27% of global maritime oil travels through the Strait of Hormuz. With activity escalating with Iran, there is increasing concern that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz, significantly disrupting oil and trade flows. Following US strikes over the weekend, Wall Street is placing a ~60% probability that some type of closure occurs. If indeed that happens, expect oil prices to rise notably near term and goods prices to increase over time as higher costs get passed through to consumers. Interestingly, Iran's oil export production facilities have not been targeted, so in theory, global oil supplies remain intact. As of the end of May, Iran produces about 12% of OPEC oil and roughly 4% of the global oil supply.

Market Data

for the week ending 6/20/2025