US Equity Markets closed out 2025 on a soft note on light trading volumes. The S&P 500 fell 1.0% for the week but finished 2025 up 16.4%, a marked improvement following fears from tariffs earlier in the year. The Nasdaq declined 1.5% for the week and finished 2025 up 20.4%, while the Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) dropped 1.0% for the week and closed 2025 up 11.3%.
Global Equity Markets finished 2025 on a positive note, leading gains among the major equity asset classes. Developed Markets were up 0.4% for the week and closed 2025 up 28.6%. Emerging Markets increased 2.3% for the week and finished 2025 up 30.6%.
US Interest Rates declined in 2025 with questions about future rate cuts persisting. Amid relatively strong US economic data, the yield on the US 10-Year Treasury ticked up to 4.19% from 4.17% the prior week, but for 2025, the 10-Year yield fell from 4.57% at the end of 2024. Investors currently expect the Fed to cut rates two times in 2026 with the first 0.25% rate cut likely in April.
Of Interest to Us
History suggests equity returns in 2026 should be positive, but below average. According to Financial Content, the S&P 500 has only posted double-digit returns for three consecutive years six times since 1940. The S&P 500 has posted double-digit returns in each of the past three years. Based on history, the average return in the fourth year is about 4.6%, with 4 of those 6 times posting positive gains.
Market Data
for the week ending 1/2/2026
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