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Since last Friday, corn is down 2 3/4 cents, soybeans are up 16 cents, and wheat is down 27 3/4 cents. Check out the graphs below to see where we are landing on a 10-year historical price chart.
ProFarmers' Crop Estimates were announced this afternoon. They pegged the corn crop at 14.979 billion bu (181.1bu/acre), and soybeans at 4.740 billion bu (54.9bu/acre). The USDA currently has the US production at 15.147 billion bu (183.1bu/acre), while they have beans at 4.589 billion bu (53.2bu/acre). This is neutral corn (still a big number), and bearish beans. Historically the crop tour does seem to also underestimate total US yield. The past 2 years they have been -5 bpa too low on the corn crop. Monday will identify how much of this crop we really have priced in. Near-perfect growing weather in most areas of the world's top corn exporter and No. 2 soybean exporter boosted bets on big crops, keeping futures prices of both commodities near four-year lows. The lower cost of growing soy versus corn, floods in some areas, and a timely winter-wheat harvest encouraged farmers to plant more soybeans than last year.
This morning, private exporters reported sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
"The time has come for policy to adjust," were the words that rang across Wall Street as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke this morning. "The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks." The markets immediately celebrated the policy pivot, with the consumer expected to do the same. The market is in full expectation of a 25-basis-point rate cut in mid-September, followed by an aggressive rate cut schedule that has rates 200 basis points lower by next summer.
Canada’s federal government ordered its two largest railways to enter binding arbitration with its workers’ union, swiftly ending a shutdown that business groups warned would have “devastating” economic consequences across North America. Worries over logistical disruptions as we work to head into harvest with a big crop on its way helped to spark some of the selling seen yesterday, and saw some slight recovery in the soybean market.
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