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The soybean complex faced selling today on South American production prospects with deferred soybean futures posting fresh contract lows despite impressive export data today. Grains traded lower in sympathy, with the wheat market ending its winning streak this week at four days and corn futures again being a market follower.
The Export sales report this morning showed that corn and wheat exports were within expectations, but soybeans surpassed them. We also saw export flash sales of 198,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, 135,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown, and 133,000 tonnes of soymeal to the Philippines. Marketing year to date wheat export sales exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 23 million bushels, up from 16 million the previous week. Marketing year to date soybean export sales fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 3 million bushels, but we've essentially closed the big deficit that's been there prior to now. Marketing year to date corn export sales exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 274 million bushels, up from 261 million bushels the previous week. The trade however does not seem convinced that the export activity lately is not just frontloaded.
Russia is reported to have fired as ICBM missile into Ukraine... a missile designed to carry a nuclear warhead, although in this case one was not affixed but rather just a mental play. Either way, the war seems to be escalating to gain as much ground before Trump's presidency where he campaigned to bring an end to the war. Reuters reported this afternoon however that Putin is open to discussing Ukraine ceasefire with Trump. If that does happen, that might just be the nail in the coffin for wheat prices.
Technically:
- Dec wheat closed just below 10-day moving average at 5.48 3/4 vs. 5.49 1/2
- Dec corn closed just above 10-day moving average at 4.27 1/4 vs. 4.26 3/4
- Jan soybeans closed again below the 10 day moving average of 10.03 1/4 at 9.77 3/4. March beans finally broke through contract-low support that has held since September.
Funds were thought to have been all sellers.
THANK YOU to all of the Wanstead customers and staff who donated to our 2024 donation drive in support of Petrolia Christmas for Everyone! We are so proud to be apart of such a giving community. CJ Brenneman was the winner of our $100 Skeeter Barlow's Giftcard. For anyone that donated cash, tax receipts will be issued. If you wanted to donate, but missed our deadline, check out their Facebook page to find out the best ways to give!
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