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The US weather forecast retains its near optimal planting weather outlook for the US. Additionally, the moisture profile continues to improve for the Southern Plains and the Trade expects further improvement in the wheat G/E ratings on Monday. Both of these weather headlines leads to the potential of good yields... and large supply by extension. When supply goes up, prices tend to go down to encourage demand.
Since last Friday, July corn is down 19 1/4 cents, while December corn is down 8 1/4 cents. July soybeans are down 6 1/4 cents, while November beans are steady. July wheat is down 21 1/4 cents, while 2026 July wheat is down 17 3/4 cents.
The managed money funds spent the session squaring their positions ahead of the WASDE report due out mid-session on Monday (estimates below) and in anticipation of something coming from the trade negotiations occurring between the US and China this weekend (Trump already suggested lowering tariffs to 80% from 145%). Monday's USDA report will give an update to the old-crop balance sheet and the first monthly look into the balance sheets for 2025-26.
Details from the UK trade deal are coming out, and it appears that Trump has negotiated an expansion of ethanol exports to the UK. A full exploitation of the tariff-free allowance would add 44 mln bu (+.8%) of usage to the US ethanol sector more than the year-round E15 approval would bring to the Midwest ethanol usage.
On the biofuel side of things, there were rumors spread today that the EPA may release its RVO numbers in May though there wasn’t much to justify the rumor.
This morning USDA reported daily sales of 288,000 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico, with 95,100 MT for delivery during 2024-25 and 192,000 MT slated for delivery during 2025-26, and sales of 120,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to Pakistan during the 2025-26 marketing year.
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