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Overall, today was another quiet session of harvest chugs along. Corn had less than a 5 cent range, and Chicago wheat had less than 10 cent range.
Currently there is a lack of rain in Brazil is delaying plantings in areas that account for 70% of the 1st crop’s production. This is bullish grains, however Commodity Weather Group mid-day maps showed better rains and cooler for northern Brazil during the 11-15 day time frame. This led soybeans to come off of their overnight highs as the day went on, eventually settling once again below the 50-day average of 10.16. Updates to La Nina’s forecast by Australia’s weather bureau indicates that the event could be more brief and weaker than originally forecast. In that light, the threat to production remains in the near term and less detrimental to total grain output... but this is yet to be seen.
US ethanol production dipped after last week’s spike. The first two weeks of the new marketing year are running 2.3% ahead of a year ago. Stocks are setting weekly records with this weeks level 10% above a year ago.
The FOMC cut interest rates by 50% upon the conclusion of their September policy meeting this afternoon, as expected by the majority of the trade; their median view of the Fed Funds rate by the end of 2025 is down to 3.4%, compared to 4.1% previously and 2.9% by the end of 2026, down from 3.1% previously.
Funds were thought to have been mostly buyers. Corn and soybeans are much less short than they were at their peak, but still hold a significant short position. Any major headlines could lead to further short-covering rallies.
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