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Private yield estimates were hitting the waves today, with StoneX upping their yields from August to 182.9 & 53 for corn and beans. Allendale came out with their values of 182.5 and 53.33. The USDA is currently at 183.1 and 52.2. These September yield estimates are similar, with a general trend toward only minor changes from the previous month. That should ease market concerns about much larger crops. Additionally, Commodity Weather Group forecasts mid-day maps ran even drier for the next two weeks with warm and dry forecasts remaining which could take the top off of where we are now.
Mato Grosso, Brazil's top state for soybeans & corn, can normally expect 1.5-2 inches of rain in Sept, but the forecast is bone dry thru mid-month, likely pushing back soybean planting.
The rally as of late doesn't seem to be primarily motivated from the fundamental side of things, so we will see if these new yield estimates shake us off our upward momentum tomorrow.
Technical trading has been huge over the past week of trading sessions. Check out the graphs below to see what progress we have made. Wheat surpassed its 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages, with the 100-day at 6.19. As you can see on the grey line, we are now above the low from our initial support level during the May-June decline. We haven't been at these levels for wheat since the end of June. Corn is in the same boat, with its 100-day target at 4.40. Once again, check out that initial support level from the end of June, in relation to where we are now. Soybeans are still on track to challenge the 50-day moving average of 10.34. Beans haven't managed to crack through that initial support level either (grey line). The next 3 graphs, I added a Fibonacci chart from our recent lows, to the apex of our summer highs. This shows that soybeans' next target is at 10.59, corn's is 4.28, and wheat's is at 6.12. When we adjust the charts to the recent highs, the threshold numbers, and where we are seeing daily support seem to make a lot more sense. Wheat just above the 66.66% retracement at 5.80, corn just above the 66.66% retracement at 4.09, and soybeans just hanging above the 10.20 50% retracement.
Today's Food for Thought, a Quote from Chris Robinson on Twitter. "Here’s your bounce… now what?".
Funds were thought to have been all buyers as they continue to cover shorts.
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