|
U.S. winter wheat conditions surged 6 pts on the week to 55% good/excellent (above all trade estimates). That is up a massive 17 points since late October. The biggest improvement ever seen in that period had been +8 pts in 1992 for the 1993 crop following the wettest November thus far on record for much of the Southern Plains.
Conversely, SovEcon cut its 2024-25 Russian wheat export forecast by 1.8 MMT to 44.1 MMT. Underlying support comes from ongoing geopolitical and weather risks in the Black Sea, but new crop supplies from Argentina and Australia should help to keep the market supplied for now.
The winter wheat futures were especially volatile to technical selling pressure as we start a Thanksgiving-holiday-shortened trading week. Thursday markets are closed. On Friday, grain markets will close at midday.
Private exporters reported sales this morning of 454,090 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Export inspections today showed that corn exports just exceeded estimates, while soybeans and wheat were as expected. Marketing year to date wheat export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 10 million bushels, up from 9 million bushels the previous week. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 74 million bushels, up from 65 million bushels the previous week. Marketing year to date corn export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 39 million bushels, up from 30 million bushels the previous week.
Crude oil prices dipped overnight on reports that Israel and Hezbollah may be near an agreement for a two-month ceasefire.
Funds were thought to have been mixed with corn a buyer, wheat a seller, and soybeans neutral.
| 
