|
Happy(?) Election-Eve! MID-CO said it best, "We have little opinion/insight as to what the outcome of tomorrow's election will be, but would assume that the next few days of trading will be rather volatile across most all markets regardless of who is announced as the 47th President of the United States".
Today was a day of data dumping.
This morning, Private exporters reported the following sales activity: 150,000 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico 24/25, 120,000 mt of corn for delivery to unknown destinations 24/25, 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations 24/25.
Today's export inspections report was as expected for corn and soybeans, and slightly lagging for wheat. Marketing year to date corn export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 20 million bushels, up from 15 million the previous week. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 45 million bushels, versus 37 million bushels the previous week. Marketing year to date wheat export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 8 million bushels, unchanged on the week. Grains initially found support on these exports, but follow-through strength just isn't there currently, with good rains falling in Brazil.
Brazil’s rainfall during the weekend was widespread from Rio Grande do Sul to southwestern Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso do Sul. Amounts were varied across Mato Grosso. Argentina’s weekend rainfall was greatest in central and southeastern Buenos Aires, providing relief to one of the country’s driest regions. More rains are expected across Brazil and Argentina over the next two weeks. After the slowest start to Brazil’s soybean planting season since 2020-21, a surge the past two weeks has now become the second fastest pace. As of last Thursday, AgRural said Brazil’s soybean planting reached 54% of planted area, up 18 percentage points for the week and three points ahead of last year.
This afternoon, the crop progress report showed....
Corn Harvest %: 81% last week, 90% estimated, 91% this week
Soybean Harvest %: 89% last week, 95% estimated, 94% this week
Winter Wheat Planting %: 80% last week, 86% estimated, 87% this week
Winter Wheat Condition Ratings (% g/ex): 38% last week, 41% estimated, 41% this week
....Harvest is nearing the finish line.
Additionally, this afternoon, StoneX released their updated yield numbers are pegged the corn crop at 183.7 (down from Oct, and just lower than the USDA), and soybeans at 52.6 (down from October and down from USDA). See chart below. Friday we get USDA's updated numbers.
Funds were thought to have been mostly buyers today.
| 
