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Wheat & Corn- Higher on Black Sea Tensions Rising (Ukraine shot more missiles into Russia today)
Soybeans- Lower on Brazil headlines and Biofuel concerns (positive production and export projections, and Trump's inner circle looking to be anti-biofuels)
With international news front of mind, other grain news did not make many waves.
A much-anticipated announcement from China came to be today. The Trade was tipped off to a pending Brazil-China trade agreement, but the details were light. The agreement turned out to be an expansion of trade in sorghum and some other lesser Ag products. Brazil and China signed 37 agreements on sideline of G-20 meeting covering Ag, trade, tech & infrastructure.
As mentioned in previous commentaries, the trade and their perception of the prospects of biofuel policy drive the value of bean oil, soybeans, and, ultimately, the value of crush. Bean oil had a 150 point drop today amid this volatility.
This morning, the USDA confirmed the sales of U.S. soybeans for delivery in 2024/25: 202,000 tonnes to China & 226,200 tonnes to unknown.
The production of ethanol utilized an estimated 110.3 million bushels of corn in the week ending Nov. 15, down from 110.6 million the previous week, but up from 105.2 million bushels in the same week last year. Marketing year to date corn use for ethanol totals an estimated 1.148 billion bushels, versus 1.150 billion bushels at this point last year, and some 42 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the year.
There are big doubts that Russia will use its nuclear arsenal against Ukraine, but Ukraine's long-range missile utilization does raise the risks making it hard for wheat to remain too bearish.
Something to start considering about trade going forward for the year is also the approaching Thanksgiving holiday next week which largely marks the start of the broader holiday trading season. This means that 'risk-off' trade around the weekends is likely to become more common place.
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