|
Low prices are working HARD to cure low prices with export activity off the charts. This morning export sales report showed corn above expectations and soybeans and wheat at the high end. Corn's weekly sales were the 5th largest for any week in at least 20 years. Mexico and unknown accounted for 79% of the 2024/25 volume. China remains virtually absent from the US market. Sales of soybeans were the 2nd largest for any week in over a year. On top of this, we saw the flash sale streak continue with 227,600 tonnes of corn to Japan, 165,000 tonnes of corn to unknown destinations, and 198,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations. Current marketing year to date corn export sales through October 17 total 924 million bushels, which exceeds the 10-year seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 125 million bushels. Marketing year to date soybean export sales total 882 million bushels. That still falls short of the 10-year seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 100 million bushels, although the deficit is shrinking. Another thought from the recent flurry of export activity is that other countries are anticipating trade troubles after the new President is inaugurated in January.
The US winter wheat belt is set up for some further moisture in the next 10 days which should continue to build crop health ahead of dormancy. Temperatures are likely to remain warmer-than-normal through the end of the month as well. Areas in Drought Aug 1st: Corn: 4%, Beans: 4%. Areas in Drought Today: Corn: 76%, Beans: 68%.
Technically, wheat settled at its 10-day moving average with targets set to challenge the 100-day at 5.84. Corn remains above all its moving averages, with the closest being the 100-day at 4.17. Beans attempted a move above the 50-day moving average at 10.07, but failed to sustain it before fading into the close.
Funds were thought to have been mixed today. Does the flash sale streak continue tomorrow and sustain us into the weekend, or do we see harvest pressure weigh on the markets Friday?
| 
