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Brazilian oilseed industry group Abiove estimated the country’s 2024/25 soybean production at 167.7 MMT, up 9.4% from last season’s 153.3 MMT; 24/25 exports are seen up 5.9% from 98.3 to 104.1 MMT, with domestic crush up 4.6% YoY from 54.5 to 57.0 MMT. This is record highs for exports and domestic processing. Soys took back 100% of yesterday's gains on this news.
It's been 1,000 days since Russia invaded Ukraine, and Ukraine marked the day by sending U.S. made missiles deep into Russia. Two years ago, a development like this would have sent the wheat market limit up. Instead, we’re seeing a more reserved response. I don’t think the wheat market ever stops caring about the Black Sea region, but it’s becoming a bit like the ‘boy who cried wolf’ tale.
Today's funds report shows that funds are long nearly 100k contracts of corn up from the record short of over -350k this summer. Not only are the funds no longer betting on corn going lower, but ethanol production is at a record. While the USDA projects ethanol lower than last year. Exports are well ahead of pace (although some believe part of this demand may have been front ran in anticipation of Trump tariffs). Either way it feels like corn has a real demand story behind it.
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