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Since last Friday, cash corn is down 5 cents, spot soybeans are up 4 cents, and wheat is up 4 cents. A lot of volatility over the past few days, for not a lot of payoff. Next week brings lots of uncertainty for the market, with another harvest weekend resulting in some profit taking to close out the week, as well as speculators starting to price in election odds. I have heard different viewpoints on how the election could impact grain markets, specifically for Canada. On one hand, there is a group that believes that Trump coming into power will put more tariffs on China, decreasing US exports as a result, putting pressure on the grain markets. When this has happened in the past, the US farmer is often subsidized for negative spillover effects, but the Canadian farmer is not. There is another group that says that most of the tariffs Trump put on China last time he was in power has not been repealed, so how much worse can it get? They also indicate that if China is buying less beans out of the US, they could buy more out of Canada which could positively impact our basis levels. Lots to think about. Has the extreme export activity we have seen lately as a result of the upcoming election as well? Getting sales on the books while importers still can? With all of this uncertainty, the market seems to be unsure how things are going to shake out. Since last week, funds have liquidated almost half of their short position from -69,000 to -35,000. Soybeans and wheat continue to have a conservative short position of -63,000 and -36,000 respectively.
Since July, Dec corn has spent most of its time in the 3.90-4.20 range, with no big indication we will deviate from that now. Dec corn settled at its 100 and 10 day moving average today of 4.14, which is just above the 50-day at 4.11. Since July, soybeans' spread has been a bit wider, from just under 9.75 to just over 10.80. Today, we closed at 9.93... just under the 10-day average at 9.94, and well below the 100 and 50 at 10.48 and 10.23 respectively. Wheat's range has tightened since the beginning of September, landing it in the 5.60-6.10 range. December wheat closed below the 100, 50 and 10 day averages at 5.77, 5.76 and 5.71.
Export data continues to be strong ahead of next week's election. Private exporters reported the following sales activity: 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China 24/25, 781,322 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico, 198,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations 24/25, 30,000 mt of soybean oil for delivery to India 24/25.
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