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Grains are taking a breather today after our quick run-up Friday and Monday. Both corn and soybean prices have reached a level that have attracted increased farmer selling and end users discomfort with buying.
We're not running out of corn, even though the cushion has shrunk, and we certainly are not running out of soybeans with the big Brazilian harvest now started. Yes, Argentina's crop is being hurt by heat and dryness, although it is still too early to claim substantial losses.
Tomorrow morning’s December NOPA soybean crush is expected to hit a record 205.5 million bushels, up from 193.2 mbu in November and 195.3 mbu last December (the previous record for the month). The previous record high figure for any month was set in October 2024 at 199.94 mbu. Trade estimates range from 202.0-209.5 million bushels.
Tuesday's weather model runs for Argentina are not materially different than they were on Monday. Still suggesting a few showers in the next couple weeks, but unlikely to amount to what is needed and definitely not the amounts that were floated last week.
This morning the USDA confirmed the sale of 198,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China in 2024/25.
Funds were thought to have been all buyers today.
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