Volume 18, Issue 40
October 15, 2021
In This Issue:
  • Market Conditions Full of Unclear Factors
  • Farmer's Effort to Give Thanks Explodes into Humanitarian Cause
  • Washington, D.C. Update
Market Conditions Full of Unclear Factors
Harvest is rounding out well, as all eyes are now turning to the demand situation for a high-yielding crop. While Haiti is the usual suspect to fill out milled rice demand, the loss experienced by the US industry this year is becoming tangible. Louisiana, for example, has had a significant erosion of the historically consistent Haitian business. Even if the rice does make it to the port, it becomes a target for local gangs and/or militias and doesn’t make it to its destination. This uncertainty pervades the market, and despite NGO’s doing their best, with no coherent logistical system inside the country, exporting rice is increasingly difficult. This is a dynamic situation with significant efforts being made to continue to source US rice into this country.

The USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report this week, and they are projecting reduced supplies, decreased domestic use, unchanged exports, and reduced ending stocks. The expectations for great yields in the long grain market were confirmed this week as well, as NASS increased the average yield by two pounds per acre, up to 7,625. As discussed previously, the lower milling yields are acting as a counterbalance to pricing pressure that may result from the bump in yields. There is also an expectation that imports will decrease by 2 million cwt, down to 36 million cwt, on account of higher freight costs and port delays—simply a function of the clogged supply chain. With the White House, leading retailers, and port authorities finally huddling to come up with solutions, there is hope for some form of progress in the coming days, albeit Q1 of 2022 is still the earliest anyone is expecting to see any form of relief.

So many influencing factors are contributing to market conditions few have witnessed, if ever. Production, weather issues, freight, logistics, labor shortage, impacts of COVID-19, damage from hurricanes and other factors are all colliding. If you have not, farmers are encouraged to contact their fertilizer suppliers to secure product for the 2022 crop. Comments in the Delta are that if there is a lack of available urea, farmers will have a tendency to shift acres more into soybeans from rice.

The global outlook calls for increased rice consumption along with increased supplies and trade. The ultimate effect is higher ending stocks, with supplies up by 2 MMT to 695.9 million. This is on account of India’s third record crop that they can’t seem to liquidate fast enough. We have mentioned that their export numbers have eclipsed Thai and Viet numbers, and the expectation is that will continue to be the case until some form of agricultural controls imposed by the government will slow the production of rice, or encourage some other crop to be planted. Global ending stocks bumped 1.8 MMT to 183.6 MMT, largely a result of China (61% of world stocks) and India (19% of world stocks).

In Asia, markets have held steady and look firm moving into the week ahead. Prices are largely unchanged in Thailand, Vietnam, and India with reports remaining at $385/pmt, $435/pmt, and $355/pmt respectively. The situation in Vietnam is going to be driven by the reopening of ports more than the supply of rice at this point; and they will be able to ship rice at these prices as quickly as the system will allow. Thai exports are struggling to pull west African business away from the cheaper Indian rice, where overall exports have just crossed 3 MMT for the year, directly on pace with last year.

The futures market got a boost this week with a tighter balance sheet signaling future reports will follow suit. This coupled with low milling yields could result in a bullish sentiment for the futures market. 
USDA Requests Public Input on New Climate-Smart Agriculture Initiative

WASHINGTON, Oct. 8, 2021 – The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced today that it is seeking public comments on a new initiative designed to create revenue streams for agricultural producers through market opportunities for commodities produced using climate-smart practices.
Farmer's Effort to Give Thanks Explodes into Humanitarian Cause
Oct 7 (AgWeb) - Jacko Garrett’s effort to give thanks through the bounty of his farm has grown into one of the most remarkable humanitarian efforts across the entire agriculture industry. Garrett’s 40-year quest to feed the hungry began with a single trailer of grain, grew into monthly deliveries, and continues today as a river of plenty with millions of pounds of rice in the flow, all directed to the needy.
Washington, D.C. Update
EPA, Corps Seek Nominations for WOTUS Roundtables

On June 9, 2021, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of the Army (hereafter, “the agencies”) announced their intent to revise the definition of “waters of the United States” under the Clean Water Act through two rulemakings—first, a foundational rule that will propose to restore longstanding protections, and a second rulemaking process that builds on that regulatory foundation. On July 30, 2021, the agencies announced stakeholder engagement opportunities, including the agencies’ intent to host ten regionally focused roundtables. EPA and Army are announcing a process for stakeholders to submit nomination letters to the agencies to potentially be selected for one of these ten geographically focused roundtables. Each roundtable should include diverse perspectives and highlight the experience of individual participants with the definition of “waters of the United States.” The agencies intend to livestream each roundtable to make them available for public viewing.

Nomination letters for the roundtables must be received on or before 11:59 PM Eastern Daylight Time on November 3, 2021. EPA anticipates that roundtables will be held in December 2021 and potentially January 2022. Specific dates will be coordinated with selected nominees based on availability.

For additional information click here
Ray Stoesser Memorial Scholarship
In partnership with the US Rice Producers Association, the Stoesser family is offering a $5,000 scholarship to one deserving high school senior or current college student who is interested in or is currently pursuing a career in an agriculture-related field. 
Cornerstone Trade Update
Food & Ag
Regulatory & Policy Roundup 
This monthly report includes data on U.S. and global trade, production, consumption and stocks, as well as analysis of developments affecting world trade in grains. Covers wheat, rice and coarse grains (corn, barley, sorghum, oats and rye).
Monthly report on crop acreage, yield and production in major countries worldwide. Sources include reporting from FAS’s worldwide offices, official statistics of foreign governments, and analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). 
Grain and feed news is positive this year in Venezuela. The forecast for winter crops is favorable due to sufficient rainfall resulting in above average yields for corn and rice. Trade with the United States will remain stable, led by paddy rice, yellow corn, and wheat in MY 2021/22.
Post forecasts rice production to level off to 7.8 MMT in 2021/22, a decrease of 200,000 MT from the record production in the current season. 
This monthly report is made by Patricio Méndez del Villar, researcher at the Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - CIRAD in France (www.cirad.fr). The contents are available in four languages: French (Osiriz). Spanish (InfoArroz). English (InterRice) and Portuguese (InterArroz).
Upcoming Events
Oct. 14 - 17, 2021
The 84th International Rice Festival: The rice festival will return to Crowley, Louisiana, after being canceled last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nov. 18 & 19, 2021
49th Missouri Governor's Conference on Agriculture: Tan-Tar-A Conference Center, Osage Beach, MO
Mar. 4, 2022
34th Annual Arkansas Agricultural Hall of Fame Induction Luncheon: Embassy Suites, Little Rock, Arkansas – event details and tickets (RESCHEDULED)

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