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Market Profile / Auction Market Report_2022_08_01
I archive everything I produce and that includes written reports as well as the Live Trade Room Videos of everything I say in the Live Trade Room during the trading day. There is no greater test of veracity or validity than to be able to go back and see what was said, and then what happened.


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The orientation is to highlight in real time an effective approach to analyzing and trading the markets in the intraday timeframe. The focus is on 1) identifying the type of day underway (trend or balance) and 2) identifying the most high-expectancy way to trade based on real time assessment.

This is all accomplished by using Auction Market Principles and the immutable develop process that all Auction Markets follow, and not using oscillators, magic numbers, order flow, delta or any of the other popular things traders use.

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Bottom line for this week: 

The four US primary trading indices have reached, and in the case of the NDX exceeded, KRAs (Key Reference Areas) that have been highlighted for several weeks. 

KRAs are first and foremost inflection points; they are logical areas that can slow or reverse a trend, but they are also areas that if exceeded can accelerate an existing trend. Be alert and flexible. 

In strong trends, especially uptrends, a really good guideline for potential “support” is the previous two day’s extremes (lows in the case of an uptrend). The initial signal a top may be in place is when the indices (all four - this is important) close below a previous day’s low.


ES (Day Session chart)

The ES has rallied into a major KRA, and the present rally is very close to the same magnitude as the March-April rally that so far is the largest rally since the January top.

As suggested above, be flexible in this area. It is almost too easy to assume the indices are near a top. They may be, but let price action confirm it.
Profile Perspective (DAILY):

From last week's Report:

VALUE appears attempting to migrate higher.

Potential paths of development:
Update:
Internals:

Breadth has reached upside extremes. THIS DOES NOT imply the market won’t trade higher (make note of the early 2019 high breadth extreme). This is a test of the type of market we are in. If the “bear market” is over the dramatic increase in breadth is likely a kick-off and we will see new highs before any significant retracement.

If we are still in a bear market we are likely near a top.

Be flexible. Follow price action, not a narrative.

No change:

I’ve been pointing this out for several weeks: A VIX that continues to drop is bullish.
Details on the above as well as many other contracts, including Best Opportunities are sent each morning before 8 AM, EST to Members. Also, the new Alexander Trading Community Forum is up and active!
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