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Market Profile / Auction Market Report_2022_08_29

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I archive everything I produce and that includes written reports as well as the Live Trade Room Videos of everything I say in the Live Trade Room during the trading day. There is no greater test of veracity or validity than to be able to go back and see what was said, and then what happened.


2021_08_01 Report

2021_08_08 Report

2022_08_15 Report

2022_08_22 Report

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The orientation is to highlight in real time an effective approach to analyzing and trading the markets in the intraday timeframe. The focus is on 1) identifying the type of day underway (trend or balance) and 2) identifying the most high-expectancy way to trade based on real time assessment.


This is all accomplished by using Auction Market Principles and the immutable develop process that all Auction Markets follow, and not using oscillators, magic numbers, order flow, delta or any of the other popular things traders use.


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PDF of the Report here.


Here is the video discussion of this Report.


Bottom line for this week: 


Friday was another wonderful real-time lesson in “simply” following price action and NOT trading a narrative. Don’t trade stories - the stuff the media HAS to have to get eyes and sell ads. If you trade/invest, YOU depend on price.


There was a tremendous amount of downside conviction in all of the primary US indices on Friday. Follow-through to the downside early next week is very likely.



I will be updating the potential scenarios and important levels each day for Members.

Daily KRAs:


The immediate levels to the upside in the indices are their respective 50% retracement levels of Friday’s range. 


Friday’s highs are now the critical upside levels from the intermediate term perspective.


The immediate downside at this point is a guess.


SPX


My entry into the magic number game heading into next week is 3845-3721. Here is how that level was derived.

Profile Perspective (DAILY):


From last weekend’s Report:


I favor the path in green.

As of Friday’s close the downside is pretty much a guess. It appears a new distribution (range) began at Friday’s high. Next week is likely to help us identify what could be the downside extreme of the distribution. Even if we are heading to lows below the June low, there will be at least minor pockets of Balance similar to what we saw on the way up from the June low into Friday’s top.


I think we will see more downside early next week before we see the first short-term low.

We could see something similar to what we saw in the June swoon.

Internals:


From last weekend’s REPORT:


We got the -2000 closing breadth reading on Friday. It is coming not far from the recent rally top, which leads me to believe it may be more of a kick-off to something relatively significant to the downside rather than marking a momentum low prior to a bottom not far from Friday’s close and a sharp reversal higher. This is an important distinction. See video for further discussion.


More hard selling early next week likely puts the 10-day MA of NYSE advancing issues at an extreme. If that occurs it likely will set up at least more two-sided trade, and potentially a strong bounce.



See this week’s video for IMPORTANT further discussion.

VIX is rising off multi-month lows. It is nowhere near an extreme.

Details on the above as well as many other contracts, including Best Opportunities are sent each morning before 8 AM, EST to Members. Also, the new Alexander Trading Community Forum is up and active!
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