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Market Profile / Auction Market Report_2022_09_06

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I archive everything I produce and that includes written reports as well as the Live Trade Room Videos of everything I say in the Live Trade Room during the trading day. There is no greater test of veracity or validity than to be able to go back and see what was said, and then what happened.


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PDF of the Report here.


Here is the video discussion of this Report.


Bottom line for this week: 


Market structure and the internal technical condition of the market suggest a rally, and potentially a strong rally, is imminent.  


HOWEVER, if the indices can't mount a rally from very near present levels we will likely see immediate hard selling and a severe test of the June lows.


Regardless of whether or not the market rallies immediately, or it washes out first, a strong rally that begins by Wednesday seems to be a high probability. Sooner (immediately) if present divergences resolve bullishly, later (Wednesday/Thursday) if we're about to have a mini-crash into midweek.


US cash markets are closed until Tuesday. Globex opens Sunday evening at 6 PM, then closes at noon on Monday. I suspect we will know the resolution of the numerous present divergences before the cash open on Tuesday.



I will be updating the potential scenarios and important levels each day for Members.

Daily KRAs:


A trade above Friday’s highs by ALL FOUR of the primary US trading indices is likely very bullish, at least short-term.


There should not be much price excursion below Friday’s lows under an immediate bullish scenario.


There is no objective “support” underneath Friday’s lows.

SPX


From last weekend’s Report: This still applies.


My entry into the magic number game heading into next week is 3845-3721. Here is how that level was derived.

Below are levels absolutely critical for the intermediate to long-term perspective.

Profile Perspective (DAILY):


This is one of those times the profile graph is down the list of things that are helping to clarify the immediate path ahead.

Internals:


From last weekend’s REPORT:


More hard selling early next week likely puts the 10-day MA of NYSE advancing issues at an extreme. If that occurs it likely will set up at least more two-sided trade, and potentially a strong bounce.


We didn’t see hard selling last week, but we did continue to see deterioration in market internals and the 10-day MA of NYSE advancing issues is at an extreme (low) from where we have seen strong rallies begin.



See this week’s video for IMPORTANT further discussion.

VIX is quite interesting at the moment. It made lower highs last week as the market continued to sell-off. This is another technical that is pointing to a sharp move. Based on Friday’s close this would be bullish, but if it isn’t we’re going to see a huge spike in VIX and a sharp move lower in the SPX and other indices early week.

Gold


Gold is at a very critical level - a major inflection point. An extremely sharp move is imminent.



Crude


The exact same comments as those above for Gold apply to Crude.

Details on the above as well as many other contracts, including Best Opportunities are sent each morning before 8 AM, EST to Members. Also, the new Alexander Trading Community Forum is up and active!
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