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Greetings!
The total home supply in Metro Vancouver in September is up 14.4% year over year and that is 36.1% above the 10 year seasonal average while sales were up 1.2% over September 2024 and that is down 20.1% below the 10 year seasonal average.
Spring & summer 2025 were unusually weak in the real estate market with sales remaining below their long term averages and well below seasonal norms. These Metro Vancouver stats get a lot of press and are distinct from the west side market stats but we are facing similar trends here on the west side.
Westside home sales, when compared to the 10-year averages, are down by 21% for detached homes, down 23% for apartments and down by 25% for townhomes.
Compared to the 10-year average, supply is up 11% for Westside detached homes, while apartment supply is up 37%, and townhomes are up 66%.
We had 54 Westside Detached home sales in September, compared to 52 sales last month.
We had 226 Westside Apartment sales in September, compared to 271 sales last month.
We had 34 Westside Attached home sales in September, compared to 54 sales last month.
In September the westside Detached Home average price was $3.646M, down 23% from $4.744M, the peak, in August 2023.
The Attached home average price was $1.614M, down 14% from $1.885M, the peak, in Dec 2024.
The Apartment average price was $955K, down 20% from $1.199M, the peak, in January 2018.
The Sales to Active Listings ratio (SALR) is a key indicator of market balance and it helps determine whether the market favours Buyers or Sellers. The range between 12% and 20% is considered a balanced market and prices are sustained.
Generally, downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12% for a period of time. Upward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio surpasses 20% over several months.
Market conditions are dynamic and can change rapidly due to various economic factors & the ratio can vary significantly depending on the property type.
Currently the SALR for Westside detached is 6.9%, attached is 13% and apartments is 12%.
On a month to month basis, demand is up slightly from last month for detached homes, it is down for apartments and is down for townhomes. Westside median prices in September are down for detached homes, apartments and townhomes. Lower prices are the result of a decreasing SALR creating downward pressure. The SALR has come down because the supply has jumped up in September and the demand has not.
The supply cycle looks more active than usual for this time of year, it is the demand that we are lacking. Another interest rate drop might help turn that around but it feels like the market feels poorer which may be a reflection of our economy. Despite lower borrowing costs, lower prices and more supply, buyers remain hesitant to enter the market.
Research has shown that markets in which prices appreciated most rapidly or had shown most volatility are now experiencing the slowest sales. So market uncertainty may be more related to the sense that prices could be cheaper in the future rather than economic uncertainty. Supply is still substantial so there are buying opportunities particularly for detached homes and if the market really turns up, buyers will rush in, so now is a good time to buy while we have good supply and little competition.
Sellers need to be the best value in their cohort to attract a buyer so strategic pricing is the key to achieving a sale.
Thinking of Selling? Letβs Talk!
π Call me today to discuss your options and make the most of the upcoming selling season.
Happy Thanksgiving! π¦π§Ίπ½ππ₯§π
Best regards
Stuart β³ πΎ
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