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In This Issue:
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Market Update: Expect the Unexpected
- Washington, D.C. Update
- 3rd Annual Ray Stoesser Memorial Scholarship: Application Open
- National Rice Month Giveaway
- Photo from Rice Country
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Market Update: Expect the Unexpected | |
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Despite rice producers being in the craziness of harvest, the market is experiencing what could be described as a calm before the storm. Truckers, driers, and farmers are dealing with the constant stress of getting the crop in the barn while the market is in a “wait and see” mode with significant global events swirling in the distance. The industry is well aware of the Indian export ban and red-hot Asian prices, but the direct impact of these food security concerns leaking into the Western Hemisphere is yet to be realized.
A significant reality that has snuck under the radar thus far, though, is that the South American crop is largely sold at this point — leaving the U.S. as the only origin for supplies in the Western Hemisphere for the next six months in a market desperate for available supplies. Mercosur, our largest competition in recent years, is essentially sold out. There are even rumors of Brazil booking a cargo of U.S. rice at the end of this calendar year! It has seemed unfathomable to consider sending rice to Brazil because in recent years of the small crop size to start, but also because Brazil has been the beneficiary of U.S. loss in market share to our core markets. How a year can change the dynamic (or the expected dynamic because nothing has technically happened to us yet in the Western Hemisphere). Things are setting up to be quite exciting. Even now, paddy quoted FOB NOLA at $415 when the price was expected to be $380 at this time. This can certainly be an answer to the higher cost of inputs the war in Ukraine has imposed on producers in the two most recent crop cycles.
With Arkansas now largely underway and reported at 24% harvested, all hopes are hanging on better field and milling yields than what we’re getting out of Texas and Louisiana. The hope was that a large crop and high yields would result in a significant supply of competitively priced rice. Unfortunately, those acres (at least from Texas and Louisiana) aren’t translating into the quality of milled rice the optimists were hoping for, thereby cutting the effective acreage expectations. Louisiana is at 86% harvested and Texas is at 80%. Mississippi is now beyond 30%, while Missouri is only at 5%. Harvesters are just getting in the fields in California for some of the specialty varieties and early-maturing medium grains. 70% of the crop is in good to excellent condition this week, down only 3% from last week. The rice industry will be looking for next week’s USDA WASDE report, scheduled to be released on Tuesday, September 12 at 12:00 pm Eastern Time. In the August WASDE report the 2022-23 carryover was raised a million hundredweights to 16.8 million. The report estimated the carryover for 2023-24 up three million at 19.6 million.
A quick summary of Asia tells us that Thai rice is settling around $650 pmt, with Viet rice very close—maybe closer to $645 pmt. El Niño is creating problems in Thailand, where dry conditions are forcing farmers to plant alternative crops to rice and the government is encouraging them to do so. The United Arab Emirates has suspended rice exports for the next four months, as has Myanmar. Indonesia has announced its desire to increase its buffer stocks but will be difficult to do because so many countries are closing up. Climate risk is becoming a significant factor in food procurement strategies for countries that rely on food imports. Domestic food inflation is a key factor as well. Right now, we see these two phenomena working together in the East and the West to create a tenuous market dynamic that will require creativity, government intervention, and cooperation to overcome.
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Senate Agriculture Leadership Urges USDA to Invest in Trade Promotion and Food Assistance
On Wednesday, Senate Agriculture Committee Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and Ranking Member John Boozman (R-AR) sent Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack a letter encouraging USDA to invest in trade promotion and global food assistance under the Department’s Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) Charter Act authority. In the letter, the Senators noted the importance of trade promotion programs, which include MAP and FMD, in opening new markets and strengthening presence in existing markets for American producers. They also say the war in Ukraine is affecting supply chains and perpetuating humanitarian crises, elevating the need for increased in-kind food assistance. A copy of the letter can be found here.
Senate Announces Plans to Consider Agriculture Funding Bill
On Wednesday, Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Patty Murray (D-WA) and Vice Chair Susan Collins (R-ME) announced plans to move the first package of fiscal year 2024 appropriations bills to the Senate floor as early as next week. This package will include the funding bills for the Department of Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, and the Departments of Transportation and Housing and Urban Development.
OMB Identifies the Farm Bill as Needing to be Extended
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) sent Congress a list of bills expiring at the September 30 end of the fiscal year in anticipation of the possible consideration by Congress of a continuing resolution. Included in OMB’s list is the extension of the entire 2018 farm bill, which OMB says needs to be extended or included in any continuing resolution unless the current farm bill is extended or a new farm bill is passed before September 30. To date, no new farm bill has been introduced or considered by either the House or Senate Agriculture Committees. For context, in 2018 the House and Senate Committees had both reported their versions of the farm bill, and these bills had passed both the House and Senate by late June. OMB’s full list of expiring authorities can be found here.
EPA and USACE Release Updated WOTUS Rule
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) issued a final rule to amend the definition of waters of the United States (WOTUS). EPA and USACE were directed to update the WOTUS definition to conform with this spring’s Supreme Court decision on Sackett v. EPA from this spring. The new definition eliminates the “significant nexus” test, which had allowed streams and wetlands adjacent to larger bodies of water to be covered by Clean Water Act regulations. It also clarifies that wetlands must have a continuous surface connection to navigable waters to be protected under the Clean Water Act. The new rule revises the standard EPA and USACE released in January 2023. More information on the new final rule can be found here.
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Third Annual Ray Stoesser Scholarship Announced | |
2023 Recipient Gayla Rose with the Stoesser Family. Gayla is a freshman at Texas A&M. | |
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In partnership with the US Rice Producers Association, the Stoesser family is offering a $5,000 scholarship to one deserving high school senior or current college student who is interested in or is currently pursuing a career in an agriculture-related field.
In addition to the monetary award, the selected recipient will serve as a student ambassador for USRPA in 2024 with an expectation of participating in at least two activities during the calendar year. The recipient will be invited to participate in various USRPA activities, including but not limited to Field Days, legislative activities, Texas Rice Council meetings, conferences, and more.
Specific criteria for selection:
- Applicants should have the intention of pursuing a career in an agriculture-related field. Applications will be accepted from high school seniors, college students, and/or college graduate students.
- In addition to completing the online application form, applicants should submit a self-produced video no longer than 5 minutes answering the following questions: What is your vision for the next generation of the U.S. rice industry? Please cover topics relevant to the future of the U.S. rice industry, such as food security/safety, sustainability, etc.
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National Rice Month Giveaway | |
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USRPA represented with our "Big Rice Pot" at the Gastronomic Festival in Guatemala promoting U.S. rice.
This event brought together the best exponents of gastronomy in Guatemala. Attendees visited the halls and tasted the most representative and innovative dishes of the different establishments of the Guatemalan gastronomic field.
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January 30-31, 2024
27th Annual National Conservation Systems Cotton & Rice Conference
Jonesboro, AR
More Information
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USRPA does not discriminate in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender identity, sexual orientation, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, or marital/family status. Persons who require alternative means for communication of information (such as Braille, large print, sign language interpreter or translation) should contact USRPA at 713-974-7423. |
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