Volume 18, Issue 42

October 29, 2021

The market remains firm for U.S. long-grain as harvest winds down. Arkansas has 10 days or less, and the second crop in Louisiana is underway and moving along as expected, though some cooler weather may slow things down a bit. Rains earlier in the week along the gulf coast has paused the Texas ratoon crop harvest. Both the paddy market and milled market are looking steady, with no big shockers on the horizon. The huge sale to Iraq has hit the books and has both exports and sales surging ahead of last year’s numbers. Iraq has been spreading their business around to Asia and South America, so there is little expectation that any more business will materialize for the U.S. until Q1 of 2022 at the earliest. It will be important to maintain paddy exports to Mexico and other key destinations while filling domestic milled business.

Prices in Texas are reported in the $14.50-$15.00/cwt range, while Louisiana is registering bids at $12.75/cwt. Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri are all somewhere between $13.25-$13.50/cwt based on location and quality. Mills seemed to be largely covered for the coming weeks, but there are steady offers in the spot market to provide liquidity in the current environment.

With this year’s harvest complete in most places, focus is already turning to planting intentions for next year. Corn, beans, and other crops are commanding a premium over rice, and the increased cost of fertilizer and chemicals is weighing heavy on the planning process. Rice farmers are encouraged to book fertilizer early with the shortages that are already in the forecast, but if prices don’t adjust, other crops with higher profit margins will be attractive. Prices of urea have reached $800-$1,000 per ton in Western Hemisphere countries. Planting season is well underway in the Mercosur countries. Government subsidies of fertilizer for farmers in Southeast Asia are being reported.

In Asia, pricing has remained steady for several weeks now. India is reported at $360 pmt, and has been within a $5pmt range for close to four weeks. The same can be said for Thailand and Vietnam, each registering at $389 pmt and $425 pmt this week, respectively. Loadings in India continue to defy gravity and the Covid clog, with the majority this week headed for West Africa. China has also been high on the list for India, as India is now China’s top supplier of rice because of the seemingly insatiable appetite for animal feed.

The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 25,200 MT--a marketing-year low—which is down 69% from the previous week and 62% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Haiti (15,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (4,100 MT), Canada (3,200 MT), Saudi Arabia (1,500 MT), and Guatemala (300 MT). Exports of 62,500 MT were down 8% from the previous week, but up 25% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (38,300 MT), Costa Rica (10,200 MT), Haiti (7,200 MT), Canada (3,700 MT), and Saudi Arabia (1,900 MT).

In the futures market, traders are rolling their November contracts to January and March. New demand is illusive for the milled market, and farmers will be illusive as well in the coming month as the holidays approach, and hunting season arrives. Average daily volume is 1,430, which is an 8.13% increase from last week, while open interest was 7,864, a drop of 10%.

Commissioner Sid Miller takes a tour of Texas rice production in the upper coastal region. See how this crop brings almost $200 million to the state's economy and provides thousands of jobs for Texans.

To find out if RFD-TV is available in your area, visit their website at: https://www.rfdtv.com/find-us

The Rules Committee posted the legislative language for President Biden’s Build Back Better Plan Rules text here. Although the legislation isn’t expected to come to the floor soon, it was intended to show movement on the legislation. The precise path forward for the proposal is unclear at this time. Many negotiations are ongoing and portions of the 1684-page proposal are still undecided. The agriculture provisions of the bill are reduced from the original levels.

Secretary Vilsack released the following statement regarding the bill: “To create millions of good-paying jobs, grow our economy, build American competitiveness, and secure our children’s future, we must invest in the human infrastructure of our nation: America’s working families. President Biden’s Build Back Better framework makes a remarkable and transformational investment in America’s working families by lowering costs and strengthening the middle-class.

“The Build Back Better framework is the largest effort in American history to combat the climate crisis, while spurring economic opportunity with innovation and good jobs here at home, better positioning us to compete globally. Agriculture can lead the way in the fight on climate with climate smart agriculture and forestry practices that sequester carbon, reduce emissions and create new and better market opportunities for producers. With significant investments in resources for farmers, ranchers, and forestland owners, this bill provides a host of new tools to deploy important conservation practices and the research essential to inform them. The Forest Service will gain long overdue and significant resources to aggressively manage our forests, reduce fire risks, and keep impacted communities safe.

“Rural America will benefit from meaningful investments to help pave the way in clean and renewable energy infrastructure and production and energy efficiency improvements that will foster new job and market opportunities. The new Rural Partnership Program will provide catalytic investments and much-needed technical assistance to rural and tribal communities and rural-serving organizations that are too often unable to access and leverage the federal resources they need to create opportunity and compete in a globalized world. These investments will put new tools in the toolbox for leveraging the additional funding toward water, housing, and clean energy essential to 21st century infrastructure, diversified rural economies, and prosperous communities. Investments in Historically Black Colleges and Universities and Minority-serving institutions will support underserved communities in modernizing research infrastructure.

“This framework is also transformative for working parents and kids. It will help children reach their full potential by investing in nutrition security year-round, during the school year and the summer months. It also includes funding to further improve the nutritional quality of meals served in school through grants and incentives. With the largest investment in childcare in the nation’s history, universal and free preschool for all 3- and 4-year-olds, and an extension of the expanded Child Tax Credit, families can worry less about the costs of raising a child. With the single largest and most comprehensive investment in affordable housing – including rural housing – in history, and the biggest expansion of affordable health care in a decade, families can focus on improving their health and economic well-being rather than struggling to get by.

“There is no question that President Biden’s Build Back Better framework is for the American people above all else. This is an extraordinary and historic moment for our nation that will transform the lives of millions and millions of Americans and touch every area of our country for decades to come.”

49th Missouri Governor's Conference on Agriculture: Tan-Tar-A Conference Center, Osage Beach, MO

Mar. 4, 2022

34th Annual Arkansas Agricultural Hall of Fame Induction Luncheon: Embassy Suites, Little Rock, Arkansas – event details and tickets (RESCHEDULED)