A LOOK FORWARD1


  • This week, investors will be focused primarily on March inflation reports, which include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). 


How does this week’s slate of economic data impact you?


  • While inflation is expected to slow from last month’s readings, the data will pre-date the tariff implementation and, as a result, may not be a driving factor moving market returns this week. 

BY THE NUMBERS


Stock Market Rout Deepens: The S&P 500 fell 322 points, or nearly 6%, to close at 5,074 on Friday — the largest oneday slump in the broad-based index since March 16, 2020, when it lost 12%. Friday plunge erased $2.7 trillion in market value from the index. The decline wipes out more than a year of stock market gains, taking the S&P 500 back to its levels in February 2024. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 2,231 points, or 5.5%, and is down 14% since peaking in February. The Nasdaq Composite slid 963 points, or 5.8%. That means the tech-heavy index is now in a bear market, or when stocks drop at least 20% from their most recent high. Tech stocks have flailed this week because of concerns that American tariffs on China — along with countermeasures from Beijing — will hurt the hightech sector, which has been key to driving corporate profits. Drops of this magnitude aren't unheard of on Wall Street, but they are rare. Over the last 25 years, the S&P 500 has fallen 4% in a single day 38 times, according to Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for brokerage firm LPL Financial.3


Trump to Extend TikTok Ban Enforcement Deal: President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he will again postpone enforcement of the TikTok sale-or-ban law for 75 days. The delay comes after Trump’s tariff announcement derailed a deal that had been set to transfer control of the app’s US operations to American ownership, a source familiar with the deal told CNN. The order would have kicked off a 120-day period to finish financing and paperwork for the deal, which would have seen a number of venture capital, private equity funds and tech giants invest in a company that would control TikTok’s US operations. TikTok’s China-based owner, ByteDance, would have retained a 20% stake in the spinoff company.4


    Matthew J. Lawler, Financial Advisor

matt.lawler@osaicwealth.com  402-412-5008


Securities offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC Advisory Services offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. Matthew J. Lawler Representative  F&M Wealth Management and F&M Bank are not affiliated with Osaic Wealth, Inc.

 May Lose Value - Not FDIC-Insured - No Bank Guarantee - Not a Deposit - Not Insured by any Government Agency

Economic Definitions


CPI (headline and core): Consumer prices (CPI) are a measure of prices paid by consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. The yearly (or monthly) growth rates represent the inflation rate.

ISM Manufacturing Index: PMI Surveys track sentiment among purchasing managers at manufacturing, construction and/or services firms. An overall sentiment index is generally calculated from the results of queries on production, orders, inventories, employment, prices, etc.

ISM Services Index: PMI Surveys track sentiment among purchasing managers at manufacturing, construction and/or services firms. An overall sentiment index is generally calculated from the results of queries on production, orders, inventories, employment, prices, etc. Target Audience: supply management professionals Sample Size: 300 individuals Date of Survey: through the month The Services Index is a composite index of four indicators with equal weights: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Supplier Deliveries. An index reading above 50% indicates an expansion and below 50% indicates a decline in the non-manufacturing economy. Whereas per Supplier Deliveries Index, above 50% indicates slower deliveries and below 50% indicates faster deliveries, Retail Sales: Retail sales (also referred to as retail trade) tracks the resale of new and used goods to the general public, for personal or household consumption. This concept is based on the value of goods sold.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey – JOLTS: This concept tracks the number of specific job openings in an economy. Job vacancies generally include either newly created or unoccupied positions (or those that are about to become vacant) where an employer is taking specific actions to fill these positions.

Nonfarm Payrolls: This indicator measures the number of employees on business payrolls. It is also sometimes referred to as establishment survey employment to distinguish it from the household survey measure of employment.

Producer Prices - PPI (headline and core): Producer prices (output) are a measure of the change in the price of goods as they leave their place of production (i.e. prices received by domestic producers for their outputs either on the domestic or foreign market).

Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate tracks the number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the labor force (the total number of employed plus unemployed). These figures generally come from a household labor force survey. 


Index Definitions


S&P 500: The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

NASDAQ: The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of February 5, 1971.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Russell Mid-Cap: Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index.

Russell 2000: The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The real-time value is calculated with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986. The end-of-day value is calculated with a base value of 100.00 as of December 29, 1978.

MSCI EAFE: The MSCI EAFE Index is a free-float weighted equity index. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. The MSCI EAFE region covers DM countries in Europe, Australasia, Israel, and the Far East.

MSCI EM: The MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid-cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Bond: The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).

Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Corp: The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Barclays EM country definition, are excluded.

Moody's, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Barclays EM country definition,

are excluded.

Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg: The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index is a flagship measure of global investment grade debt from twenty-four local currency markets. This multi-currency benchmark includes treasury, government-related, corporate and securitized fixed-rate bonds from both developed and emerging markets issuers.

Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index: The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Municipal Index covers the USD-denominated long-term tax-exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds and prerefunded bonds.

Disclosures


Index performance does not reflect the deduction of any fees and expenses, and if deducted, performance would be reduced. Indexes are unmanaged and investors are not able to invest directly into any index. Past performance cannot guarantee future results.


Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect again loss. In general, the bond market is volatile; bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually pronounced for longer-term securities. Any fixed-income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss. Vehicles that invest in lower-rated debt securities (commonly referred to as junk bonds or high-yield bonds) involve additional risks because of the lower credit quality of the securities in the portfolio. International investing involves special risks not present with U.S. investments due to factors such as increased volatility, currency fluctuation, and differences in auditing and other financial standards. These risks can be accentuated in emerging markets.


The statements provided herein are based solely on the opinions of the Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management (Ladenburg) Research Team and are being provided for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Any opinions provided herein should not be relied upon for investment decisions.


Certain information may be based on information received from sources the Ladenburg Research Team considers reliable; however, the accuracy and completeness of such information cannot be guaranteed. Certain statements contained herein may constitute “projections,” “forecasts” and other “forward-looking statements” which do not reflect actual results and are based primarily upon applying retroactively a hypothetical set of assumptions to certain historical financial information. Any opinions, projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements presented herein reflect the judgment of the Ladenburg Research Team only as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. Ladenburg has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these opinions, projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements. Ladenburg is not soliciting or recommending any action based on any information in this document.


Ladenburg is a SEC Registered Investment Adviser under the Investment Advisers Act. Ladenburg provides investment advisory services and may serve as a sub-adviser for accounts managed by third-party advisers or may be included in advisory platforms sponsored or administered by affiliates or third parties. Ladenburg does not provide tax or legal advice. Please consult your tax advisor or attorney. For additional information, please see the Program Disclosure Brochure or ADV Part II for full details, which are available upon request or please visit https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/108604 7827415

1 Data Obtained from Bloomberg as of 4/4/2025.

2 Data Obtained from Morningstar as of 4/4/2025

3 Stock market rout deepens as Dow plunges more than 2,200 points

4 Trump to extend TikTok ban enforcement deadline after China tariffs derail deal | CNN Business