MARKET WATCH

April has been a relatively placid month for global markets with most trading within a per cent or two of their March values. The biggest news was OPEC’s unexpected production cuts of about 1.1 million barrels a day. Although oil prices and securities initially rose following the announcement, they have since subsided to prior levels.

Looking forward, a recession is still expected, but the timing and severity remain uncertain. On the bright side, with inflation cooling to 4.3%, the environment is more conducive to lowering interest rates if/when a recession does occur.

As for our portfolios, due to being well-diversified, leaning towards value and commodities, and, of course, our religious rebalancing practice, we continue to do well relative to global markets. And we expect that to be the case moving forward.

As always, feel free to reach out if you have any questions, and if you’re looking for more timely information on the markets, you can find them on the research section of my website, or on my Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn feeds.

BOOKS

What’s Our Problem? by Tim Urban: What’s Our Problem? builds on the work Tim Urban, creator of the uber-popular blog Wait But Why, began six years ago. His purpose was to find out why political discourse had turned into a cesspool of negativity. His book is good, many feel very good, but it could have been great. Let me explain why.

Urban believes the problem is less about what people believe, but rather, how they think, the level of civil disagreement they’re willing to engage in, and the degree they attempt to silence those they disagree with. He deems those open-minded and willing to listen and learn as “high-rung” thinkers. On the other hand, individuals entrenched in echo chambers, who demonize others with different worldviews as “low-rung” thinkers. This first section of the book is funny, wise, and insightful.

The second half dissects the history and present of the right and left sides of the political spectrum. It’s well-researched and I learned a lot. For example, I had no idea the Democrats won the House of Representatives (elected every two years) 13 times straight. The consequence of two-and-a-half decades of Republican losses was a hard pivot to negative, cut-throat politics (under Newt Gingrich). Urban asserts that this, and the abolishing of the Fairness Doctrine in 1987, began the slide into the toxicity we see today. (The Fairness Doctrine required news broadcasters to present opposing perspectives of a controversial issue that was in the public interest.)

Following his critique of the political right, Urban shifts to the other side of the political spectrum. As a left-leaning classical Liberal, Urban highly values freedom of expression in most situations. While he fully embraces the principles of social justice, he is very concerned with the punitive and anti-liberal principles the far left currently enforces in universities and other organizations. This part of the book is thorough and well-researched. But, perhaps, too thorough. In illustrating so many examples and studies, this section feels bloated and never-ending. Possibly to the point of turning off the moderates Urban worked so hard to reach.

I still feel this is an important book. And people interested in how we got here should read it. But do so knowing that one section, in an attempt to make its argument rock-solid, is over-litigated – to a fault.

ARTICLES

Crony Beliefs by Kevin Simler: Interesting article on the purpose of some of our beliefs. According to Kevin Simler, we all have “crony beliefs”, beliefs we hold for social and political benefit, as opposed to beliefs that accurately model the world. He believes an easy way to tell if a belief is a crony one, is whether we feel offended when it’s being challenged, as opposed to being excited at the prospect of our knowledge improving.

Towards a Greater Synthesis: Steven Pinker on How to Apply Science to the Humanities by Farnam Street: I enjoy articles like these that encourage the confluence of fields – in this case, how to apply the sciences to the humanities.

Auto GPT: As if artificial intelligence wasn’t moving fast enough, Auto GPT, a self-programming AI, was released just a month ago. This Twitter thread provides a few examples of what it’s capable of.

Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down by Eliezer Yudkowsky: There are serious concerns around how fast AI is developing and where it could lead. I don’t pretend to understand the true risks, but the fact that Eliezer Yudkowsky, author of The Map is Not the Territory, is worried, is enough to give me pause.

Lessons from Silicon Valley Bank by Howard Marks: Another great read from Howard Marks. One of the best summaries on the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failure I’ve seen, while explaining why he thinks this scare isn’t nearly as serious as 2008. (SVB is a regional bank whose clients were highly concentrated in one industry, and its demise was due to pitiful liability management.) On a sobering note, he mentions it is worth keeping an eye on U.S. commercial real estate, as it has some unique risks that could become an issue.

New Faculty-led Organization at Harvard Will Defend Academic Freedom by Steven Pinker and Bertha Madras: Perhaps a sign the pendulum is beginning to swing back to the side of academic freedom.

The 12 Innovations We Need to Save Humanity and the Planet by Vaclav Smil: Some thoughts on the innovations people and the planet need the most.

Not Disappointing Myself by Ava: “Every time you’re given a choice between disappointing someone else and disappointing yourself, your duty is to disappoint that someone else. Your job, throughout your entire life, is to disappoint as many people as it takes to avoid disappointing yourself.”

Psychological Paths of Least Resistance by Morgan Housel: Seven ways people often use psychological crutches to avoid facing inconvenient truths and verify what they already believe.

PODCASTS AND VIDEOS

Tyler Cowen Interviews a GPT version of Jonathan Swift: Economist Tyler Cowen interviews a GPT version of renowned (and long deceased) author Jonathan Swift. It’s mind-boggling how good AI already is at synthesizing and repackaging information.

Dire Straits: Energy in Europe by Peter Zeihan: Europe dodged a bullet this winter as the unseasonably warm weather allowed it only use a fraction of the natural gas (for heating) it normally would. But, unless it gets lucky again, the continent will likely face expensive energy prices for the next few years.

Harmontown: Fun documentary on Dan Harmon’s, creator of TV shows, Community and Rick & Morty, national tour of performing in small venues.

Daniel Schmachtenberger: Steering Civilization Away from Self-Destruction | Lex Fridman Podcast: Wide-ranging conversation including the meaning of life, the role of government in society, and catastrophic risk. I’ve become a big fan of Daniel Schmachtenberger and his stabilizing voice in today’s polarized world.

Kings of Kings (Episode 1/3) | Dan Carlin's Hardcore History: I’m re-listening to Hardcore History’s three-part series on the Persian Empire. This episode covers the brutal Assyrian Empire, its fall, and the unexpected rise of the Persian Empire. The violence of past eras makes you appreciate how far – despite it often not feeling like it – society has come.

SELECTED INSIGHTS

“Most men pursue pleasure with such breathless haste that they hurry past it.”​

– Søren Kierkegaard​

“If you say no to a thing, then you’re saying no to one thing. If you say yes to a thing, you actually say no to every other thing during that period of time." 

– Tobi Lütke

“You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.”

– Daniel Kahneman

“Happiness is being satisfied with what you have. Success comes from dissatisfaction. Choose.”

– Naval Ravikant