MARKET WATCH

Markets were mostly lower this month. U.S., Canadian and international markets declined, the price of gold finished where it began, and emerging markets and Canadian energy stocks rose. Although the latter trade almost 50% higher on the year, they remain – as do most equites - well off their 2022 peak.

Looking forward, the outlook remains murky. The war in Ukraine continues and, although COVID numbers have declined recently, it’s reasonable to expect them to increase as temperatures fall. Inflation remains very high, but signs point to it having reached its apex, which could be good news for interest rates. And a recession looks less probable than it did a month ago.

In other words, although the economic outlook has improved slightly, the situation remains too complex to predict with any confidence. We remain well-diversified and lean towards “value” investments, which continue – and should for a while – to outpace “growth” and the market as a whole.

As always, feel free to reach out if you have any questions, and if you’re looking for more timely information on the markets, you can find them on the research section of my website, or on my Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn feeds.

AN APOLOGY AND SOME NEWS

For the first time since starting this newsletter, I missed our publication deadline, which is the last Thursday of the month. Though I’m under no illusions you count the hours until it arrives, I apologize for this tardiness. I’ve taken great pride in ensuring it’s sent in a timely fashion and struggled with the decision to postpone its delivery.

Having said that, I have – what I believe – is a decent excuse. I’m happy to report that after 15 months of looking, Tanya and I bought a house. So the last three weeks have seen us: close on the house, pack all our things, move to Burlington, and mostly settle in. It’s been hectic.

With this in mind, please excuse the reduced content. With limited hours in the day, my reading time was the unfortunate casualty. Moving forward, I’m hoping to have more time to read, however, I’ve also been told a home requires slightly more upkeep than a condo. Time will tell…

ARTICLES

Why History Matters by Jamie Catherwood: “When describing why history is such an important tool at investor’s [sic] disposal, I often use an analogy that compares GPS systems to compasses. History is not a GPS system or roadmap. Just by reading historical sources, one does not suddenly obtain some crystal ball into the future with perfectly laid out routes for navigating the future (like a GPS system). History never repeats itself exactly, but there are certainly broader trends and patterns that repeatedly present themselves to those looking.

That said, I like to think of history as a compass for steering investors in the right direction when historical trends appear. By recognizing the patterns that repeat over the course of centuries we can better position ourselves for whatever lies ahead. For example, across hundreds of years there is a clear link between low interest rate environments and speculative booms.”

The U.S.-China Tit-for-Tat Escalations Are Very Dangerous by Ray Dalio: Some historical perspective on the dangerous game the world’s two superpowers are playing.

Sri Lanka Collapsed First, but It Won’t be the Last by Indrajit Samarajiva: An emotional account of the collapse of the Sri Lankan government and thoughts on what may have caused it. This article is worth reading, not only to learn what happened, but because Sri Lanka may be the canary in the coal mine.

Lifestyles by Morgan Housel: Two stories on how whom you want to impress can impact the outcome of your life.

VIDEOS, PODCASTS AND TWITTER POSTS

Lobby Baby by Seth Myers: After a night of striking out on comedy choices, Tanya and I stumbled across Lobby Baby. We were unexpectedly impressed. Not only was it funny, but it was also refreshingly devoid of politics or social commentary. Definitely worth a try if you need a laugh or a break from everything going on in the world.

How to Use Twitter to Make You Smarter (Kunal Shah) by The Knowledge Project: Bold suggestions on how to use Twitter to improve your knowledge and thinking.

How Caffeine Works and What It Does to Your Body (Andrew Huberman) by The Knowledge Project

Human Resources by Hardcore History: The Atlantic Slave Trade is a difficult topic to examine. I found myself viscerally affected by a number of the descriptions in this episode. But I’m glad I listened to it as I’m a little more educated on the topic.

700 Sundays by Billy Crystal: Brilliant one-man show about Billy Crystal’s childhood – by the man himself.

Now This is How to Make a Latte!

What a Volcano Eruption Looks Like From Space

Weird: The Al Yankovic Story (Official Trailer): I will definitely be seeing this movie!

PATIO PONDERING

"Most successful people are just an anxiety disorder harnessed for productivity." 

– Andrew Wilkinson

"Most people are out of touch with reality because they confuse the world as it is, with the world as they think about it, and talk about it, and describe it."

– Alan Watts

"Deconstruction creates knowledge. Recombination creates value."

– James Clear

"It seems, in fact, as though the second half of a person's life is made up of nothing but the habits they accumulated during the first half." 

– Fyodor Dostoyevsky