|
May Drought Update: Where We Stand and What Comes Next
Updated May 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM Eastern
| | |
Plain and simple, this spring has just been different. We’ve kicked off the growing season with historically dry conditions for this time of year. At the same time, severe weather has been fairly quiet, and temperatures have run well above normal, at least until recently. From an agricultural perspective, that combination usually isn’t a bad thing, and in many ways, we’ll take it.
That said, as we head deeper into the warmer months, Kentucky finds itself in a tough spot from a hydrologic standpoint, and this reality has brought understandable concern about what lies ahead. With that in mind, this update focuses on how we got into this position, how 2026 stacks up historically, and what the latest forecasts and outlooks suggest going forward. Some of this discussion overlaps with an article I wrote for Kentucky Field Crop News a few weeks ago. However, conditions have continued to evolve. While we've seen some beneficial rainfall recently, we still need much more!
Before getting started, I wanted to share a quick invite. In a partnership with the Kentucky Climate Center, I'll be hosting the Kentucky Monthly Climate Perspective on Drought and Hydrologic Conditions today, May 7, at 2 PM Eastern/1 PM Central. We'll review April conditions, where things stand now, what the outlooks suggest moving forward, and finish with an open discussion.
To join, click the Zoom link below and enter the meeting ID and passcode. The presentation will also be available live on the Kentucky Climate Center YouTube channel. These webinars are typically held on the first Thursday of each month, with additional sessions offered as needed during drought periods. Hope you can join us!
Meeting ID: 945 6821 6001
Passcode: 957822
Zoom link
YouTube Channel
| |
Starting off, here’s a look at the latest U.S. Drought Monitor update for Kentucky, released this morning, Thursday, May 7. Nearly 90 percent of the state is now experiencing some level of drought. The most significant impacts remain across Western and South-Central Kentucky, where much of the region is classified in Severe or Extreme Drought. That latter category is the second most intense on the U.S. Drought Monitor and represents the largest extent of Extreme Drought in Kentucky since the fall of 2016.
Overall, this week’s map looks very similar to last week’s. While we've seen a more active pattern recently, rainfall has still ran below what we'd typically expect for this time of year. According to the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, Kentucky averaged 1.75 inches of rainfall over the past 14 days, which is roughly three-quarters of an inch below normal. The recent rainfall has certainly helped agricultural, but from a hydrologic standpoint, we still have plenty of ground to make up.
Stepping back to last month, Kentucky saw the highest drought coverage ever recorded during the month of April since the U.S. Drought Monitor began in 2000. That is 26 years of data! For comparison, the previous April record was 39 percent coverage in 2001, and in 2026, we have more than doubled that. Even more notable, this was the only April on record to include areas classified in Severe or Extreme Drought.
| |
Unlike many of the droughts we’ve dealt with over the past decade, this dryness didn’t develop over just a month or two. Instead, it’s been slowly building over time. The official data isn't quite out for April, but it's safe to say Kentucky has now seen six straight months of below‑normal precipitation going back to November. That stretch includes the state’s fifth driest winter on record, with data going all the way back to 1895. This alone marks a big shift compared to recent years. Over the previous decade, eight of the last ten winters brought above‑normal rainfall, helping recharge soils ahead of the growing season. That simply didn’t happen during the winter of 2025–26. Instead, the state finished the season more than 5.5 inches below normal.
The dryness has continued into spring. Statewide precipitation in March averaged 3.24 inches, about an inch and a half below normal. April brought some welcome rainfall toward the end of the month, but overall deficits still increased. Based on preliminary data, the state averaged 3.00 inches in April, which is 1.73 inches below normal.
When you add everything up since November, the overall picture remains concerning. The graphic below shows precipitation departures from normal for the period November 1st through April 30th. While the entirety of Kentucky is running well below normal, the situation goes to another level across Western and South‑Central Kentucky (epicenter of highest drought categories), where rainfall deficits of 10 inches or more are common.
| | |
While the map above extends through April 2026, official climate data currently only runs through March 2026. We'll get that data in the coming week and I'll share another update when that happens. Keeping that in mind, how does this 5-month period of November through March rank historically? Statewide, this period ranks as the third driest on record with 132 years worth of data. Over those five months, Kentucky averaged just 12.35 inches of precipitation, which is 7.90 inches below normal (chart below).
The numbers become even more eye‑opening when you narrow the focus to Western Kentucky. For this climate division, the November through March period ranks as the driest on record. Western Kentucky averaged just 9.61 inches of precipitation, nearly 11.5 inches below normal. That deficit is more than an inch worse than the previous record set over a century ago in 1910–11.
If we include the preliminary April 2026 total of 3.00 inches and look at November through April rankings, Kentucky would rank as the second driest on record for that period. In Western Kentucky, preliminary April average was 3.38 inches, which still puts the region on track for its driest November through April on record, and by a fairly wide margin. Bottom line, while we've seen some timely and beneficial rainfall for agriculture over the past couple of weeks, from a hydrologic standpoint, conditions have continued to deteriorate.
| In addition to the lack of rainfall, temperatures have also been running well above normal (until recently). The early warmth has increased evaporative demand and, at the same time, pushed vegetation to green up earlier than usual. The result is higher water use during a period when soil moisture is already limited. March 2026 finished as the fourth warmest March on record in Kentucky. Comparisons to 2012 are understandable, although March 2012 was still a few degrees warmer than this year. April 2026 continued the trend. Preliminary data from the Midwestern Regional Climate Center shows statewide temperatures averaged 7.0 degrees above normal. This will likely be the all-time warmest April in KY history. | | |
The prolonged dryness is creating significant hydrologic issues. Soil moisture, groundwater, streamflows, some of which are at record lows for this time of year, and pond and lake levels are all running well below normal, and we haven’t even reached summer yet. Not surprisingly, this is already leading to water supply concerns. One example is in Liberty, where residents are being asked to conserve water as Lake Liberty has dropped to dangerously low levels (picture to the right, courtesy of the City of Liberty, KY on Facebook).
At the same time, while everything still looks predominantly green, signs of agricultural drought have been taking shape. This is especially evident with spring hay production, which is looking a bit more uncertain in 2026. Fortunately, recent rainfall has been timely for our field crops.
| |
Concern is certainly there, and the big question becomes: does a dry start to the growing season automatically point us toward a 2012‑ or 2007‑type drought? Historically, the answer is no, not necessarily. While one of the driest November through March periods on record is concerning, history shows that late spring and summer outcomes have been mixed.
Using the table above, highlighting the top ten driest November–March periods in Kentucky history, I looked at how summers unfolded in each of those years. This analysis used a combination of the Palmer Drought Severity Index for years prior to 2000 and the U.S. Drought Monitor for more recent years. In some cases, such as 1931, 1941, and 1954, extreme drought followed a dry start to the year. In other years, the outcome was less severe. Summers like 1977, 1918, 1966, 2010, and 1911 experienced occasional rounds of moderate drought, while 1981 actually went in the opposite direction and saw several months of above normal rainfall.
No two droughts are the same, but as conditions currently sit and history tells us, drought conditions will likely remain for a good amount of time moving forward, but the eventual peak intensity is still uncertain. A dry start does not guarantee a major summer drought, but it does increase vulnerability. I’m trying to maintain a glass‑half‑full approach, especially since our current climate tends to be wetter than the early to mid‑20th century. Still, the numbers point to elevated drought risk, and early awareness and planning can go a long way in reducing impacts if a more significant drought does develop. Unfortunately, 1931, 1941, and 1954 all featured below-normal rainfall in April and that trend continued into May. That doesn't necessarily mean 2026 will follow the same path, but current forecasts for May are not especially favorable for widespread drought-relieving rainfall.
In the meantime, I would strongly encourage reporting any drought impacts through the Drought Impact Reporter. These can include pasture and forage conditions, declining water resources, economic or operational impacts, soil issues, or anything else of note. If it’s easier, you’re also welcome to send reports directly to me at matt.dixon@uky.edu. Ideally, I’m looking for your location, a brief description of impacts, and a photo if possible.
| |
Looking ahead, a meaningful pattern shift will be needed, not just one significant rainfall event, but multiple. It will take a fairly wet finish to spring to put us in a better position heading into the summer months and to help recharge soil moisture. At this point, that type of pattern is not clearly showing up.
After a recent uptick in activity, forecast rainfall totals over the next week are not particularly impressive (quarter to half inch). The outlooks also don't offer much confidence for any widespread, drought-relieving rainfall through the end of May (maps below). While near-normal precipitation would provide timely benefits for row crops, it will not be enough to improve our overall hydrologic situation.
Another factor to watch will be the return of above-normal temperatures later this month, which would increase moisture demand. With that in mind, it will be important to monitor how precipitation trends evolve in the coming weeks. Hopefully, we begin to see a shift in these outlooks soon!
Until next time! If you have any questions, feel free to reach out at matt.dixon@uky.edu. Also, again, I will be discussing this situation in more detail during today’s webinar at 2 PM Eastern.
| Related News from UK and Beyond | | | | |
