Eight weeks ago, our Governor and researchers feared the worst and thanks to the best efforts of communities like ours, the worst never came to pass.
You may recall when the Governor
sent a letter to President Trump almost exactly eight weeks ago saying: "We project that roughly 56 percent of our population–25.5 million people–will be infected with the virus over an eight week period." He requested that the USNS Mercy deploy to Los Angeles, which it did. Last week, the USNS Mercy left port after treating
77 total patients in 7 weeks and California has seen slightly over 80,000 positives results.
Instead, here are the actual facts as of Monday (5/18). Keep in mind that Orange County has over 3.2 million people who live here, which is larger than 22 states.
25 hospitals report that they currently have 5,903 beds and 809 ventilators. In a surge capacity situation, we could expand that to 8,394 beds and 1,737 ventilators. As of Monday, 229 hospital beds are being used out of that current 5900 bed figure.
That means that 3.8% of Orange County's hospital beds are being used to treat COVID-19 patients. 3.8%.
Case counts in Orange County have of course gone up as testing has increased. It took over a month to test 40,000 cases at the beginning. It took 17 days to test another 40,000 people. And even with pretty high standards for tests over the past couple of months (requiring symptoms initially), the positive rates on testing is around 5.5% (
4,344 positives out of
80,533 tests).
How does this compare to counties around us? San Diego County has 100k more people and
has lost 211 people (2.4x OC). If OC and SD were actual states, their mortality rates would be
lower than at least 45 other states. Los Angeles, on the other hand, is approximately 3x OC's population, but
has lost 1,913 people (21.7x OC). In one day - yesterday - LA lost 76 people. For further perspective, Long Beach alone (pop. 467k) has reported losing 52 people and Pasadena alone (pop. 141k) has reported losing 71 people (these two cities have their own public health agencies).
Clearly the stay-at-home order and the economic shutdown played roles that ensured that the early projections were incredibly wrong. Showing our current statistics is not meant to spike the football on how wrong those projections were because we are still in the midst of a serious virus that we need to take seriously. But we have to be constantly vigilant probing the reasons that our Governor issued the stay at home order state-wide.
The Governor's
executive order on March 19 stated that the goals were to "preserve the public health and safety, and to ensure the healthcare delivery system is capable of serving all, and prioritizing those at the highest risk and vulnerability...." We should expect that our leaders analyze and question the underlying reasons for that order. The projections underlying the order were wrong. The
concerns about overwhelming our hospitals haven't born out. In fact,
hospitals have laid off thousands of employees because their hospitals were essentially empty.
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First Responders
Shouldn't Be First Cut
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Governor Newsom unveiled his budget last week that outlines how he plans to close a projected $54 Billion budget deficit.
There is an old quote that a budget is a list of priorities over time. We in Newport Beach clearly don't share the priority of releasing criminals and cutting our public safety services first.
We are still
rated AAA by all bond agencies. We have solid reserves. We have made decisions on our
capital improvement program that will help balance our upcoming budget while not losing any significant safety programs (water/sewer/roads, etc.).
We prioritize your safety and whole community health. We will continue to do so.
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Will is so much more than just the favorite mayor of HGTV's Christina Anstead, he truly is as she described "a really great guy" who believes that being Mayor is about listening to your constituents regardless of their political affiliation. Will shares with us how being Mayor is a wonderful job he feels so lucky to have and why it is a truly bipartisan effort.
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If you have been confused about what can open, how it can open, and when it can open, you're in good company.
When the Governor announced his four phases, he subsequently broke phase 2 into multiple sub-phases.
First, the City of Newport Beach has not passed any resolution or ordinance that has closed any business in the City during this time. There is no process for a business to apply to the City for reopening, nor would there be any expectation that a business would make such an application.
Second, both the State and the County have enforcement capabilities and it would be prudent for businesses to seek clarification where questions arise. To the extent that questions of enforcement of other agencies’ or governments’ orders or resolutions arise, the City will resolve ambiguities in favor of our local businesses. Where there is clarity of law, the City will first conduct education and seek voluntary compliance before enforcement.
Finally - and separate from our statement from last week - we are paying close attention to
whether OC can reopen into full phase 2. Our City is already working on an emergency ordinance allowing for outdoor commercial space. If I need to call another emergency meeting before our regular meeting on Tuesday, I will do so.
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Newport Beach mayor Will O'Neill joins Sports Sunday to discuss the reopening of the beaches in Newport, parking tickets, the return of high school sports, his favorite baseball team, and a lot more.
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This past week was Peace Officers Memorial Day. Here in Newport Beach, we were devastated by the loss of Detective Jon Jarema to his battle with cancer.
Det. Jarema served at the Newport Beach Police Department for 12 years. During that time he served as a patrol officer, SWAT team member, and most recently as a Detective. Jon leaves behind his beautiful wife, Lauren, and three year old twins, Jett and Quinn.
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2618 San Miguel Drive # 173
Newport Beach, CA 92660
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