Healthy Grasslands Are Major Key to Future Ground Water Challenges and Climate Resilience

MFGA Aquanty Model Study forecasts long-term climate change impacts and grassland and groundwater recharge solutions

Winnipeg, MB – (August 25, 2026) –

A recent study and report using the Manitoba Forage and Grassland Association’s Aquanty Model across three southern Manitoba watersheds has emphasized the need for and importance of grasslands and groundwater recharge in facing climatic challenges ahead in 2050 and 2100.

“The future really starts now in many ways, including how we prepare our farms and fields for times ahead,” said Zack Koscielny, MFGA chair and Strathclair-area mixed farmer. “I think we all see and expect changes ahead; this gives us a more exact look at what those changes might look like and the importance of grasslands and groundwater recharge to all of us in times right now.”

The $130,000 one-year project was made possible through Manitoba Environment and Climate Change Climate Action Funding and focused on forecasting climate change impacts and solutions in 2050 and 2100 across three previously modelled watersheds by MFGA: Pembina Valley, Swan Lake, and Oak River.

“Healthy grasslands and wetlands are essential to Manitoba’s environmental and economic future,” said Manitoba Environment and Climate Change Minister Mike Moyes. “As climate conditions continue to change, protecting these natural assets will help strengthen drought resilience, support sustainable livestock production, and safeguard water resources for future generations. Our government is proud to support research and practical solutions that help Manitobans adapt, while ensuring our landscapes remain productive, resilient and healthy for decades to come." 

Steve Frey, PhD is the lead scientist on the project for Aquanty, a software company out of Waterloo, Ontario that has worked with MFGA for more than a decade on the MFGA Aquanty Model. 

Frey says the project really demonstrates that as the years go by that grasslands will become increasingly important for climate resilience with specific results indicating warmer temperatures (+2.5°C by mid-century and nearly +5°C by end-century), declining snowpack, changing runoff timing, and increased water losses through evapotranspiration.

“Together, these trends suggest that maintaining healthy perennial grasslands and protecting groundwater recharge functions will become increasingly important adaptation strategies for sustaining cattle grazing systems,” said Frey. “From that, we can anticipate that those adaptations in grazing systems will also provide many additional benefits that buffer climate change impacts on society as a whole.”

There were some clear messages in the findings. The study projects a consistent increase in evapotranspiration that will increase moisture stress on forage and pasture lands. This trend has important implications for soil moisture and overall watershed water balance.

“Higher temperatures drive greater atmospheric water demand, causing more water to be lost from soils and vegetation during the growing season,” said Frey. “For forage producers, there will be increased risk of pasture drying and reduced forage yields, and greater pressure on grazing management. Pasturing will potentially start earlier in the season, but availability mid-to-late summer will be under stress.”

Koscielny saw that late summer stress forecast as a signal for producers to adapt now to grazing systems that rotate the cattle across paddocks that have been rested for their grazing needs.

“The decisions some of us make now on our lands with grazing systems are designed for cattle to go into a smaller grass paddock, hit the grass for a designated time and be moved along to another paddock in short time, allowing more rest and recovery for the grass before returning to it months or even years later,” said Koscielny. “And while these finding are 25 years ahead, the thing is some of the solutions are in our control now. We can start adopting and practicing the grazing systems that we need to reduce the anticipated later summer stress for our grazing herds right now.”

Koscielny expects technology advancements could also be a positive factor in cattle grazing as time goes on and also mentioned the opportunity of some of the rotational grazing programs out there offered by groups like Manitoba Association of Watershed District’s Prairie Watershed Climate Program as good ways to learn and engage on systems that might buffer grazing pressures down the road.

One of the clearest findings of the study is a progressive decline in subsurface water storage over the course of the century, particularly under end-century climate conditions. Increasing evapotranspiration and reduced snowpack are key drivers of water storage decline. 

“Protecting groundwater recharge areas to minimize additional stress on subsurface water resources is recommended,” said Frey. “Anything that helps promote groundwater recharge and reduce surface runoff in sensitive areas probably doubles down for times ahead. Forages and grasslands, forests, wetlands, soil health, all those things can help protect groundwater recharge areas.”

For beef cattle grazing operations, declining groundwater storage will reduce the long-term reliability of dugouts, wetlands, and groundwater-fed livestock watering sources.

Kosicelny says preparing for those times comes with a more urgency and dedication to water and areas that recharge the groundwater systems. Practice, he feels, will help less than perfect scenarios down the road.

“We need to be wiser and more strategic with our water decisions in so many regards,” he said. “This has nothing to do with flash floods and moving water off the land after a torrential rainstorm, rather, this has everything to do with being a cattle farmer 25 years from now and stressing about how to get your herd a good August drink from the now- trickling source you’ve relied upon all your life. We can’t prevent everything, but we can plan better.”

To view the MFGA Aquanty Model's Climate Action Fund project report in entirety, please click here.

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For More Information

Duncan Morrison, MFGA, Duncan@mfga.net, 204.770.3548.