2025 | November 17

The Markets

Markets Flat



Persistent uncertainty over AI prospects and the interest rate outlook buffeted U.S. stocks as the market rallied on Monday and then sold off on Thursday. The S&P 500 and Dow finished fractionally higher for the week, while the NASDAQ ended slightly lower.

Diminished prospects for an interest rate cut by the Fed at its December meeting weighed on government bond prices, sending the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury higher. The yield finished on Friday at 4.15%, up from about 4.09% at the close of the previous week. Yields of 2- and 30-year Treasuries were also higher for the week. 

Bond market traders dialed back their expectations of an interest rate cut at the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting scheduled to conclude on December 10. Friday afternoon’s prices in rate futures markets implied a nearly 46% probability that the Fed would cut by a quarter point, according to CME FedWatch. Just a week earlier, traders had been pricing in a nearly 70% likelihood of a December cut.

The midweek conclusion of the 43-day U.S. government shutdown is expected to eventually clear a backlog of delayed economic data, but it remains uncertain when many key reports will be issued, how complete they’ll be, and whether some releases may be canceled. Under a revised schedule, the September jobs report is set to be released on Thursday, November 20; other delayed reports hadn’t been scheduled as of Friday.

The U.S. stock market appeared to take the 43-day government shutdown in stride. The S&P 500’s closing level on Wednesday – the last day of the shutdown – was 2.4% higher than on September 30, the day before the shutdown started. Government bonds also largely held steady, with the 10-year yield at 4.07% on Wednesday versus 4.15% pre-shutdown. 

The price of the most widely traded cryptocurrency extended its recent decline, falling more than 20% below its recently achieved record high. Bitcoin was trading around $95,000 on Friday afternoon, down from the record of about $125,000 reached less than six weeks earlier.

With earnings season nearly complete as of Friday, overall results remained well above analysts’ expectations relative to forecasts prior to the release of third-quarter numbers. S&P 500 companies’ earnings were expected to rise by an average of 13.1% versus a forecast for about 8.0% growth entering earnings season, according to FactSet.

A gauge that tracks investors’ short-term expectations of U.S. stock market volatility had a bumpy ride on Friday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) climbed as high as 23.0 in morning trading before slipping below 20.0 at midday. The VIX closed at 19.8, up around 4% for the week.   

Source: John Hancock Investment Management 

Medicare Made Simple Video

Last month, Andrew and John invited local health insurance consultants, Margaret and Jennifer Smith, to a discussion on Medicare. Topics included when to sign up for Medicare, choosing the best coverage, how to save on premiums and prescriptions, costly mistakes to avoid and what changes to consider each year during enrollment.

Here is a link to watch the event. Please feel free to pass along to friends and family. 

Last American Pennies Minted

Last week, the U.S. Mint stamped its last set of pennies. It was a common-sense change that some say is long overdue. The cost to produce pennies has increased sharply, rising from 1.42 cents to 3.69 cents per penny. Ending production has the potential to save taxpayers $56 million dollars a year.

The change doesn’t mean the penny will disappear. There are more than 300 billion in circulation – although they aren’t spent often. In fact, a dearth of pennies has created problems for retail stores. “In early November, six national retailers reported that more than 1,000 of their locations were without pennies,” reported Austen Jensen on the Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA) blog.

In a RILA survey of 25 retail chains, “Two-thirds of respondents said they are rounding transactions to the benefit of consumers when pennies are unavailable — a practice that, while fair to shoppers, is costing businesses millions of dollars as small amounts add up across thousands of daily cash transactions,” reported Jensen.

Cash is #3 in the hierarchy of spending

There are some good reasons to pay for goods with cash. For example, spending physical money can make it easier to control spending and stick to a budget. Cash also offers greater privacy. However, many consumers prefer the convenience of credit and debit cards, according to The Federal Reserve’s Diary of Consumer Payment Choice study.

“Households earning less than $25,000 per year and adults 55 and older relied more on cash than other cohorts. In contrast, adults aged 18 to 24 were more likely to pay with a mobile phone, using their phones for 45 [percent] of all payments.”

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