Midterm years tend to bring more downside volatility. The S&P 500’s median peak-to-trough decline is around 18% during midterm years (vs ~10% in non-midterm years), with 10%+ corrections occurring ~70% of the time. *1
Microsoft has fallen ~28% since July, erasing ~$1T in market value as AI concerns drive sentiment. This is its cheapest MSFT stock has been relative to the S&P 500 in a decade, a level last seen in January 2023 before a ~73% rally over the following 12 months. *2
Tax refunds are rising, with the average refund ~$3,742, up more than 10% year over year. 3
Adjustable-rate mortgages are gaining popularity, with nearly half of $1M+ mortgages now ARMs. An ARM mortgage offering ~5.3% rates vs ~6.1% for a 30-year fixed mortgage would save someone around $500/month on a $1M loan. 4
MFS – “Beyond the News”
Barron’s – “Microsoft Stock Hasn’t Been This Cheap in a Decade. It’s Time to Buy.”
Barron’s – “Tax Refunds Are Bigger This Year. How to Invest It Wisely.”
MarketWatch – “Nearly half of new $1M+ mortgages are ARMs”
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Economic Calendar
Monday:
Empire State Manufacturing (Mar), Industrial Production (Feb), Capacity Utilization (Feb), NAHB Home Builder Confidence (Mar)
Tuesday:
Pending Home Sales (Feb)
Wednesday:
Producer Price Index (Feb), Core PPI (Feb), PPI YoY, Core PPI YoY, Factory Orders (Jan), FOMC Rate Decision, Powell Press Conference
Thursday:
Initial Jobless Claims (week of Mar 14), Philly Fed Manufacturing (Mar), Wholesale Inventories (Jan), New Home Sales (Jan)
Friday:
None scheduled
US Markets*
S&P 6,723.47 +0.36%
DOW 47,066.81 +0.26%
NASDAQ 22,477.71
+0.46%
World Markets*
FTSE 10,403.60
+0.83%
NIKKEI 53,700.39 -0.09%
HANG SENG 25,868.54 +0.13%
*values as of 1pm EST 3/17/2026
Treasuries*
2 YR3.665%
10YR 4.198%
30 YR 4.847%
Cryptocurrencies*
BTC-USD
74,456.20
+0.68%
ETH.CM
2,333.50
+0.86%
Currencies*
Euro $1.1536
Pound $0.7490
Yen $158.9750
Commodities*
Gold 5,008.50
+0.13%
WTI Crude 94.63
+2.35%
Silver 79.71
-1.21%
Upcoming Earnings Calls
Monday - DLTR, BEKE, FPS, SMTC, VFS
Tuesday - ESLT, TME, ZTO, LULU, DOCU
Wednesday - MU, SBXD, JBL, WSM, GIS
Thursday - BABA, PDD, ACN, FDX, PUK
Friday - CCL, CUK, AXIA, XPEV, MNSO
Client Focused Trading® for large institutions, pensions, hedge funds, wealthy families, and private equity for over 30 years.
Glen Eagle Wealth, LLC is a member FINRA and SIPC
This desk commentary is for informational purposes only
