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The USDA’s monthly reports in December did not include revisions to U.S. grain and soybean production estimates. Any further adjustments to the 2024 crop will be made in the Crop Production Annual Summary to be released January 10, 2025. This month’s updates focused solely on the demand side of U.S. balance sheets. However, there were some revisions to U.S. cotton production estimates.
Corn:
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook included increases in corn used for ethanol, larger exports, and noticeably lower ending stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol was raised 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion; the second highest yearly total behind 2017’s 5.605 billion bushels. Corn exports were raised 150 million bushels to 2.475 billion reflecting the strong pace of sales and shipments to date. Corn ending stocks were reduced 200 million bushels to 1.738 billion; slightly below last year’s 1.760 billion. The season-average price received by producers was unchanged at $4.10 per bushel compared to last year’s $4.55 per bushel.
Soybeans:
For 2024/25, U.S. soybean supply and use projections were unchanged this month. Ending stocks are currently estimated at 470 million bushels, up from 342 million in 2023/24. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.20 per bushel, down $0.60 from last month and down $2.20 per bushel from last year.
Global soybean production was increased this month by 1.7 million to 427.1 million tons. Argentina’s soybean production was increased 1 million tons (~37 million bushels) this month to 52 million; this would be the largest crop there since producing 55.3 million tons in 2018/19. Brazil’s production was left unchanged this month at a record 169 million tons. In total, South American soybean production is forecast to be record large this year at 239.5 million tons; up 20 million tons from last year.
Rice:
The 2024/25 U.S. long-grain exports were reduced for the second consecutive month, declining by 2.0 million cwt to 72.0 million. Export sales and shipments to key markets such as Mexico and Iraq continue to lag last year’s pace. The reduction in exports pushed ending stocks higher to 31.1 million cwt., which is a hefty 11.8 million increase over last year’s 19.3 million cwt. At 31.1 million, long-grain ending stocks would be the largest since 2018/19’s 32.6 million cwt. The 2024/25 long-grain season average farm price was unchanged at $14.50 per cwt. or $6.53 per bushel. The average farm prices for the 2023 crop was $15.90/cwt. or $7.16 per bushel.
Cotton:
The only changes to the U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 were to production and ending stocks. The December estimate for U.S. all-cotton production was revised higher to almost 14.3 million bales, an increase of 64,000 bales from last month. The national all-cotton yield estimate was increased 3 pounds to 792 pounds per harvested acre with higher yields in the Southeast and Delta regions and lower yields in the Southwest and West regions. Ending stocks increased to 4.4 million. The 2024/25 season average upland farm price was unchanged at 66 cents per pound. This compares to 76.1 cents per pound for the 2023 crop.
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