Morning Coffee & Ag Markets

Monday, December 23, 2024

Benefits of Debt Consolidation to Improve Short-Term Liquidity

Author: Ryan Loy, Assistant Professor, University of Arkansas, rloy@uark.edu

**Disclamier: The views expressed in this interview do not represent or imply endorsement of the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture toward any commercial entity, service, or product.


Historically low commodity prices, high input costs and expensive financing have been some of the most significant issues farmers have faced in the last few years. Luckily, some financial relief may come in the form of lower interest rates from the Fed reducing COVID-era rate increases (Wright, 2024). The Fed aggressively moved in September to cut 50 basis points, bringing the target Federal Funds rate to 4.75 – 5%, with indications for at least another 50 basis points before the end of 2024 (Fannie Mae, 2024). This article explores a hypothetical situation of a producer leveraging lower interest rates to consolidate debt to improve short-term liquidity.


Consider a farmer’s debt obligation for 2024 (Table 1). In this scenario, the farmer holds a land loan with an original principal balance of $450,000 at a fixed interest rate over 20 years. As of 2024, the remaining principal stands at $330,000, with 12 years left in the repayment period. Additionally, the farmer has a machinery loan with an original principal balance of $180,000, structured over a 7-year term. The outstanding balance on this loan is currently $110,000, with 4 years left until maturity.



The farmer also faces a $50,000 operating loan, due at the end of this year. Unfortunately, this year has not been profitable, and he cannot cashflow all his debt obligations.  

Table 1. Current Debt Obligations – Before Consolidation

The farmer’s total current debt obligation amounts to $123,000 for the year (Table 2). To address this financial strain, the producer meets with their lender to explore options for restructuring their debt. They discuss the possibility of consolidating existing debt into a longer-term, more favorable interest rate structure. The lender agrees to consolidate the remaining principal balances on all three loans ($330,000 + $110,000 + $50,000) into a new 10-year note totaling $490,000 (Table 3). The lender agrees to secure this loan using the equity in the farmer’s financed land as collateral. 

Table 2. Current Debt Obligations – Before Consolidation

Table 3. Consolidated Debt Structure

Under this new debt structure, the farmer not only relieves the burden of the current year payments, but also reduces the ongoing obligation from $73,000/year to $63,000/year. While debt consolidation offers advantages, it’s also important to consider potential drawbacks. For example, under the original debt structure, the annual debt service obligation would have dropped to $40,000/year, after the machinery loan was paid off in 4 years. Under the consolidated note, the producer is committed to $63,000/year for a full 10 years.


 Longer-term debt obligations also potentially lead to paying higher total interest expenses, even with an interest rate lower than their original loan(s) due to the extended accrual period. Additionally, creating a new loan comes with closing costs and fees that could offset the immediate financial benefits. Every situation is unique, and the pros/cons are not always clear. Those looking to consolidate existing debt should meet with their lenders and determine the best strategy for their farm’s short-term viability and long-term sustainability. 

Arkansas Market Update

(as of December 19, 2024)


Exchange


Crop


Futures Month


Unit


Date (12/19/24)


Month Ago

(11/19/24)


Year Ago (12/19/23)

CME

Corn

MAR25

$/bu

$4.37

$4.40

$4.73

CME

Rice

JAN25

$/cwt

$14.82

$15.17

$17.24

CME

Soybeans

JAN25

$/bu

$9.52

$10.10

$13.13

CME

Wheat

JUL25

$/bu

$5.59

$5.82

$6.39

ICE

Cotton

MAR25

$/lb

$0.68

$0.69

$0.79

USDA-NASS


Peanuts*

Weekly U.S. Avg.


$/ton


$480


$488


$500

*SOURCE: Peanut Prices, Runner-type, USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, December 19,2024.

Fertilizer

State Average Cash Price

Urea ($/ton)

$490.00

34-0-0 ($/ton)

$465.00

Ammonium Sulfate ($/ton)

$520.00

DAP ($/ton)

$792.50

Triple Super Phosphate ($/ton)

$687.00

Potash ($/ton)

$475.00

Pellet Lime ($/ton)

$225.00

Off Road Diesel ($/gal)

$2.55

Highway Diesel ($/gal)

$3.17

NOTE: Each state average price is taken across multiple input suppliers across Arkansas. For a price more local to you, please contact Mr. Riley Smith at rsmith@uada.edu.

Mississippi River Level at Memphis, TN

(as of December 19, 2024)

Current Level (ft)

4.31

Year Ago (ft)

-5.53

Critical Low Water Level (ft)

-5.00

Action Flood Stage Level (ft)

28.00

SOURCE: NOAA National Water Prediction Service

NOAA 7-Day Weather Forecast

(as of 12/19/2024)

SOURCE: NOAA National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center

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