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Good Friday morning!
Today is jobs Friday as the government report of Non Farm Payrolls was released @ 8:30 AM EST. Other than that, it is pretty quiet with only Factory Orders @ 10:00 AM EST and Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM EST.
Yesterday was obviously a drubbing and my how quickly things can change! Going into the open yesterday it looked like nothing but clear, sunny skies ahead for the bulls, however, only 15 minutes after the opening bell, sellers came in very aggressively and did not stop selling until about 3:00 PM EST!!! That definitely was a slap across the face by the bears and the bulls are now nervous!
This morning futures are down sharply across the board and overnight inventory is net short...polar opposite from the past two trading days! As I mentioned yesterday, IF certain key levels were taken out, then the tone shifts from bullish to bearish! My exact words.....
"ONLY a loss of 5558 then 5525 would change the tone and put things back to the bears."
Well once those levels were lost, downside targets were hit and then some! It was extremely bearish yesterday and we are piling on more selling this morning. We are now also below the double bottom of July 25th and July 30th double bottom @ 5432 so any price action that stays below those levels keeps things bearish. Any move back above 5432 could see some short covering. Volatility is rising quickly so intraday ranges are expanding in a huge way so price your targets and stops accordingly! (Meaning they also have to be expanded!)
VPOC Update: No new VPOC yesterday however because of the bearish price action, the VPOC below @ 5469.25 was taken out. Also, the next closest one below is @ 5418.25 and that is definitely in play today but with this dump after the non farm payrolls, it might not be touched. Still 2 above and now 24 below, soon to be 23 I believe. 5348.25 is the next closest VPOC below.
5699.50 and 5611.25 are still untested VPOC's above.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5550 - 5560
Key Level: 5432 VERY KEY Double Bottom of 7/25 & 7/30
downside target is: 5435 - 5425 then 5360-5350
/NQ upside target is: 19,425 - 19,450
Key Level: 18,725 7/30 Low
downside target is : 18,625 - 18,575 then 18,150 - 18,100
/RTY upside target is: 2245 - 2255
downside target is: 2165 - 2160 then 2095 - 2085
Economic Data:
Employment Report @ 8:30 AM EST
Factory Orders @ 10:00 AM EST
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Demand $5407-5416 with Supply at $5600 then at $5533-5527
1. Buyers trapped below $5540 and holding below after a pullback will be
looking to play short targeting $5525 then $5500
2. Sellers trapped above $5550 looking to play long targeting $5562 then
$5575
SPY - Supply previous Demand at $547
1. Buyers trapped below $546 after a break and retest from $545 looking to
play short targeting $543 then 542 or if Supply flips to demand below $540
2. Sellers trapped above $547 looking to play long from a break and retest f
targeting $549 then $550
SPX Demand at $5420-35 with Supply at $5500 - 5491
1. A breakdown below $$5490 and holding below after retest I will look to
play short targeting $5480 then $5466
2. A bounce above $5500 and reclaim support I will look to play long
targeting $5515 then $5528
/NQ Key Demand at $19920 with Supply at $18925 then at $18900
1. Sellers trapped above $18892 looking to play long targeting $18953 and
$19000
2. Buyers are trapped below $18892 off and holding , looking to play short
targeting $18877 then $18865
QQQ Demand at $450 LOD with Supply above at $457-458
1. Sellers trapped above $457 looking to play long off a break and retest
from $458 targeting $460 then $461
2. Buyers trapped below $457 after a break and retest below playing short
targeting $455 then $453
Also watching ...
AMD Key Demand at $131-132 with Supply above at $137
1. Buyers trapped below $137 looking to short off a break and retest from
$136 targeting $134 then $132
2. Sellers trapped above $138 looking to play long targeting $141 then $143
NVDA Key Supply above at $111 with GAP down at $108
1. Buyers trapped below $109 looking to play SHORT targeting LOD
2. I would only like to play long if it can reclaim support above $112
SOXL Gap Down pre market / over night with Supply at $35-34 Demand at $31
1. Looking to play a GAP and go off a bounce below $35 from $34 playing
short targeting $33,31 then new LOD
2. A bounce a hold above $35 I would like to play a break and retest long from $36 where Supply flips to back to Demand targeting $37 then $38
Have a great day and a fantastic weekend!
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