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Good Thursday morning,
🐂 Bulls still riding the Pogo stick!
Some wicked intraday volatility yesterday after headlines hit the tape suggesting that President Trump might fire Fed Chair Powell. As usual, the bulls stepped right back in and bought the dip, resulting in a sharp bounce! Price also returned to the five-day balance area, and we're now sitting in a six-day balance. The edge still favors the bulls, although it looked like a potential pendulum swing to the bears yesterday. That move below balance didn’t last long. Remember: price is just an advertising mechanism—time and volume validate and regulate the auction.
📊 In the profile pic and key levels below, price is back above 6,290, maintaining the edge with buyers for now. Key support levels include 6,290 (bottom of balance) and 6,288.50 (overnight low). If buyers hold above these levels, the prior high and overnight high become the next targets at 6,308.75 and 6,311.50. A move beyond that range opens the door to upper targets between 6,325–6,335. If buyers keep stepping on the gas and shorts start to panic, we could even see 6,345–6,355.
If sellers drag price back below 6,290, then 6,288.50, the next stop would be the POC (Point of Control) at 6,283.50, followed by half-back and VAL (Value Area Low) at 6,275. Lower targets would be in the 6,275–6,265 zone.
Futures are currently trading at 6,313 at the time of this writing.
🧭 VPOC Update: Busy day in the VPOC world yesterday. On that sharp liquidation break after the Powell headline, 6,271 was taken out—just as noted, it was definitely in play! A new VPOC was also added above at 6,310, so now we’ve got one above and three below. 6,310 is in play this morning.
Current VPOCs:
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 6,325 - 6,335
Key Levels: 6,283.50 POC
downside target is: 6,275 - 6,265
/NQ upside target is: 23,225 - 23,250
Key Level: 23,017 Overnight low
downside target is : 23,000 - 22,975
/RTY upside target is: 2,255 - 2,265
downside target is: 2,220 - 2,210
Economic Data : Red Star Events
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales @ 8:30 AM ET
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index @ 8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices @ 8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories @ 10:00 AM ET
Housing Market Index @ 10:00 AM ET
Adriana Kugler Speaks @ 10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
20-Yr Bond Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
Mary Daly Speaks @ 12:45 PM ET
Lisa Cook Speaks @ 1:30 PM ET
Treasury International Capital @ 4:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet @ 4:30 PM ET
Christopher Waller Speaks @ 6:30 PM ET
More Color By : Rich Rickus
1. ES - Key Demand $6280- 90 then Supply above at $6340- 6350
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $6280looking to play a break and retest above $6285 long targeting $6317 then $6345
Bearish Buyers trapped below $6270 looking to play short after a break and retest below $6260 targeting $6240 then a break down into $6220's
2. SPY Key demand at $622-623 with Supply above at $627
Bullish Sellers trapped above $623 looking to play a break and retest from $624 long targeting $626 then a breakout into high $628’s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $622 after a break and retest below $621 targeting $619 then a breakdown into $616s
3. /NQ Key demand at $22900 with Supply above at $23125
Bullish - Sellers trapped above $22900 looking to play a break and retest above $22950 long targeting $23100 then a breakout back into low $23250s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $22850 looking to play short from below $22800 targeting $22600 then $22550s
4. QQQ Key Demand at $556 with Supply at $560
Bullish - Sellers trapped above $556 looking to play a break and retest from $557 targeting $559 then a breakout into high $560
Bearish Buyers trapped below $555 looking to play a break and retest below $554 targeting $552 then $551
Have a great day!
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